Research ArticleEVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY

Genomic models predict successful coral adaptation if future ocean warming rates are reduced

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Science Advances  01 Nov 2017:
Vol. 3, no. 11, e1701413
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1701413
  • Fig. 1 Patterns of polymorphisms across populations.

    (A) FST values between Ofu Island, American Samoa and Rarotonga, Cook Islands show a higher frequency of large FST than comparisons within Ofu Island. Inset magnifies the tail of distribution. (B) The Rarotonga population has a greater number of rare alleles (<5% frequency overall) than Ofu. (C and D) Patterns of differentiation are also reflected in a principal components analysis of SNPs from A. hyacinthus colonies from Rarotonga, Cook Islands (Rar) and two sites in Ofu Island, American Samoa: an HV pool and an MV pool. The first principal component (PC1) across all SNPs divides groups by population (C), whereas the first principal component across candidate SNPs for heat tolerance divides groups by microclimate (D).

  • Fig. 2 Genomic prediction of Rarotonga population trajectories under RCP emissions scenarios.

    (A) Temperature of the hottest month from NOAA GFDL ESM2M (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model 2M) SST predictions for Rarotonga. (B) Population size trajectories. For each RCP, 10 simulated populations are shown in transparent colors, and the mean population size is shown in bold. (C) Frequency distributions for thermal tolerance SNPs identified by Bay and Palumbi (11). Black line reflects initial frequency distribution, and dark and light blue lines show RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, respectively. The other RCP scenarios are not shown because the simulated populations went extinct.

  • Fig. 3 Assisted gene flow affects adaptation to climate change.

    (A and B) Four different levels of migration (0, 10, 25, and 50 migrants/year) simulated under RCP6.0. Ten simulated trajectories (A) and associated frequencies across 114 thermal tolerance alleles (B) per migration level are shown in transparent colors, and the mean is shown in bold.

  • Fig. 4 Impact of genetic architecture of thermal tolerance on population persistence under climate change scenarios.

    Time to extinction (A and B) and total time (<50%) of initial population size (C and D) are shown. (A and C) Results for simulations conducted in increments of 10 between 10 and 200 loci. (B and D) Results show a broader sampling, in increments of 100 between 10 and 1000. Lines show means across 10 simulations per scenario.

  • Fig. 5 Heat map showing extinction times across a range of population growth rates and initial population sizes for all RCP scenarios.

    Color reflects mean time to extinction for 10 replicate simulated populations. White cells indicate that none of the simulated populations experienced extinction.

Supplementary Materials

  • Supplementary material for this article is available at http://advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/3/11/e1701413/DC1

    appendix S1. Description of the individual-based model.

    fig. S1. Comparison of probabilistic and individual-based models.

    fig. S2. Sensitivity to choice of climate model.

    fig. S3. Demographic impacts of migration.

    fig. S4. Results of simulations for determining the width of the survival function.

    fig. S5. Effects of the chosen quantile for the calculation of scaling factor (S) between degrees Celsius SST and Tprop.

    table S1. Source data.

  • Supplementary Materials

    This PDF file includes:

    • appendix S1. Description of the individual-based model.
    • fig. S1. Comparison of probabilistic and individual-based models.
    • fig. S2. Sensitivity to choice of climate model.
    • fig. S3. Demographic impacts of migration.
    • fig. S4. Results of simulations for determining the width of the survival function.
    • fig. S5. Effects of the chosen quantile for the calculation of scaling factor (S) between degrees Celsius SST and Tprop.

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    Other Supplementary Material for this manuscript includes the following:

    • table S1 (Microsoft Excel format). Source data

    Files in this Data Supplement:

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