Research ArticleCLIMATE CHANGE

Divergence of species responses to climate change

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Science Advances  17 May 2017:
Vol. 3, no. 5, e1603055
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1603055
  • Fig. 1 Changes in temperature and precipitation across the eastern United States.

    (A) Changes in MAT and (B) TAP between the recent past (1951–1980) and the study period (1981–2014).

  • Fig. 2 Rose diagrams depicting the direction and distance of abundance shifts for 86 species.

    Spatial shift of species abundance for (A) all stems, (B) saplings, and (C) adult trees between two inventory periods (1980s and 2010s). Color represents the different distance categories, and wedge width represents the proportion of species in each direction-distance category.

  • Fig. 3 Spatial shift of species abundance by subpopulations.

    (A) Latitudinal shift and (B) longitudinal shift of species abundance center and (C) relativity stem density change by subpopulations (four quadrants that are defined by species density center at T1). Positive values indicate northward or eastward shift, and negative values indicate southward or westward shift in (A) and (B). Different letters represent significant differences according to the Tukey post hoc test using glht in R. NW, northwestern; NE, northeastern; SW, southwestern; SE, southeastern.

  • Fig. 4 Shift of species mean abundance center by ecoprovinces in the eastern United States during the last three decades.

    210, Northern Hardwood region; 220, Central Hardwood region; 230, Southern Pine-Hardwood region; 250, Forest-Prairie Transition region (44, 51). All three species centered in ecoprovince 250 shifted westward (rose diagram not shown). “Si*” indicates that the shift is statistically significant (P < 0.05). NS, nonsignificant.

  • Fig. 5 Relationships between climate variables and species abundance change (shaded area indicates 95% confidence interval).

    (A) Relative changes in species density [(Density_T2 − Density_T1)/Density_T1 × 100)] in association with species MAT and TAP at T1 within the overlapped species distribution range at T1 and T2. Dot size is proportional to the relative density change. Red and green represent negative and positive change in the relative density, respectively. (B) Positive association between relative changes in species density and changes in species’ respective TAP. (C) Positive association between relative changes in species density and changes in total tree stem density.

  • Fig. 6 Longitudinal species abundance shift mapped on a phylogram representing evolutionary relationships among the 86 study species.

Supplementary Materials

  • Supplementary material for this article is available at http://advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/3/5/e1603055/DC1

    Supplementary Text

    fig. S1. Average environmental conditions during the study period.

    fig. S2. Relationships between changes in species abundance, PDSI, temperature, and total tree basal area.

    fig. S3. Box plots of functional trait values for species that experienced different longitudinal shifts (E0, nonsignificantly eastward; E1, significantly eastward; W0, nonsignificantly westward; W1, significantly westward).

    fig. S4. Box plots of latitudinal and longitudinal stem density shifts by physiological trait groups.

    fig. S5. Box plots of functional trait values for species that experienced different latitudinal shifts (N0, nonsignificantly northward; N1, significantly northward; S0, nonsignificantly southward; S1, significantly southward).

    fig. S6. Box plots of latitudinal and longitudinal stem density shifts by dispersal trait groups.

    fig. S7. Latitudinal species abundance shift mapped on a phylogram representing evolutionary relationships among the 86 study species.

    table S1A. Summary of shift percentage and distance by directions.

    table S1B. Shift of species abundance for all trees during the last three decades.

    table S1C. Shift of species abundance for sapling-sized trees during the last three decades.

    table S1D. Shift of species abundance for adult trees during the last three decades.

    table S2. Linear mixed-effect model parameter estimates and significance for the relationships between species shift and changes in environmental variables and successional processes.

    table S3. Description of functional traits used in the analysis.

    table S4. Years during which the first inventory (T1) and second inventory (T2) were completed for each state.

    table S5. Species used in the study and their sample sizes and their mean density at the first and second inventories.

  • Supplementary Materials

    This PDF file includes:

    • Supplementary Text
    • fig. S1. Average environmental conditions during the study period.
    • fig. S2. Relationships between changes in species abundance, PDSI, temperature, and total tree basal area.
    • fig. S3. Box plots of functional trait values for species that experienced different longitudinal shifts (E0, nonsignificantly eastward; E1, significantly eastward; W0, nonsignificantly westward; W1, significantly westward).
    • fig. S4. Box plots of latitudinal and longitudinal stem density shifts by physiological trait groups.
    • fig. S5. Box plots of functional trait values for species that experienced different latitudinal shifts (N0, nonsignificantly northward; N1, significantly northward; S0, nonsignificantly southward; S1, significantly southward).
    • fig. S6. Box plots of latitudinal and longitudinal stem density shifts by dispersal trait groups.
    • fig. S7. Latitudinal species abundance shift mapped on a phylogram representing evolutionary relationships among the 86 study species.
    • table S1A. Summary of shift percentage and distance by directions.
    • table S1B. Shift of species abundance for all trees during the last three decades.
    • table S1C. Shift of species abundance for sapling-sized trees during the last three decades.
    • table S1D. Shift of species abundance for adult trees during the last three decades.
    • table S2. Linear mixed-effect model parameter estimates and significance for the relationships between species relative density change and changes in environmental variables and successional processes.
    • table S3. Description of functional traits used in the analysis.
    • table S4. Years during which the first inventory (T1) and second inventory (T2) were completed for each state.
    • table S5. Species used in the study and their sample sizes and their mean density at the first and second inventories.

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