Technical CommentsSeismology

Response to Comment on “How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma respond to decreased saltwater injection rates?”

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Science Advances  09 Aug 2017:
Vol. 3, no. 8, eaao2277
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aao2277

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Abstract

Goebel et al. question our forecasted response of induced seismicity to reduction of saltwater injection rates in north-central Oklahoma and raise the concern that “the probability of future damaging earthquakes may be underestimated.” We compare our prediction to earthquake data recorded in the 8 months after publication. Observed seismicity rates and magnitudes agree with the forecast of our model. Our use of a probabilistic model accounts for uncertainties and observed M ≥ 4.5 to date confirm the conservative nature of our prediction. The “realistic parameter range” suggested by Goebel et al. is based on a misunderstanding of our statistical model and disagrees with the long-term decay of seismicity in the region.

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