Research ArticleENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Natural climate solutions for the United States

See allHide authors and affiliations

Science Advances  14 Nov 2018:
Vol. 4, no. 11, eaat1869
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aat1869
  • Fig. 1 Climate mitigation potential of 21 NCS in the United States.

    Black lines indicate the 95% CI or reported range (see table S1). Ecosystem service benefits linked with each NCS are indicated by colored bars for air (filtration), biodiversity (habitat protection or restoration), soil (enrichment), and water (filtration and flood control). See the Supplementary Materials for detailed findings and sources.

Supplementary Materials

  • Supplementary material for this article is available at http://advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/4/11/eaat1869/DC1

    Supplementary Materials and Methods

    Fig. S1. Mapped reforestation opportunity areas in the lower 48 states.

    Fig. S2. Conceptual framework for improved forest management carbon accounting.

    Fig. S3. MAC for carbon sequestration through forest management and aging, after Golub et al. (99).

    Fig. S4. MAC for natural forest management after Latta et al. (98) and best-fit functions.

    Fig. S5. MAC curves for improved plantations.

    Fig. S6. Fire management analysis area.

    Fig. S7. Regions used for reporting avoided forest conversion results.

    Fig. S8. Forest conversion from 1986 to 2000.

    Fig. S9. Potential carbon emissions from areas at high risk of forest conversion.

    Fig. S10. Cities included in the urban reforestation analysis.

    Fig. S11. Calibration of remote sensing data for forest cover estimation in urban areas.

    Fig. S12. Avoided grassland conversion map.

    Fig. S13. MAC curve for avoided grassland conversion.

    Fig. S14. Nitrogen fertilizer use in the United States.

    Fig. S15. Marginal abatement cost curve for reducing N fertilizer rate.

    Fig. S16. Marginal abatement cost curve for applying variable rate technology fertilizer application.

    Fig. S17. Grazing optimization map.

    Fig. S18. Legumes in pastures map.

    Fig. S19. Grassland restoration map.

    Fig. S20. MAC curve for grassland restoration.

    Fig. S21. Break-even prices for GHG abatement from rice production.

    Fig. S22. MAC curve for salt marsh restoration.

    Fig. S23. MAC of avoided GHG emissions from seagrass.

    Table S1. Mitigation potential of NCS in 2025.

    Table S2. Co-benefits of NCS.

    Table S3. Literature MAC estimates for reforestation of agricultural lands.

    Table S4. Literature estimates of reforestation costs used to estimate MAC of reforesting natural ecosystems.

    Table S5. Estimated marginal abatement cost of fire management by major forest region.

    Table S6. Forest disturbance rates by source.

    Table S7. Mean annual forest hectares cleared per year from 1986 to 2000.

    Table S8. Mean annual forest hectares cleared per year from 2001 to 2010.

    Table S9. Mean annual forest hectares converted per year from 1986 to 2000.

    Table S10. Proportion of areas cleared from 1986 to 2000 that had not regenerated to forest by 2010.

    Table S11. Mean predisturbance dry biomass (kg m−2) in forest areas converted from 1986 to 2000.

    Table S12. Mean predisturbance dry biomass (kg m−2) in forest areas converted from 2001 to 2010.

    Table S13. Carbon emissions (Mg C year−1) from estimated forest conversion from 2001 to 2010.

    Table S14. Albedo-adjusted carbon emissions equivalent (Mg Ce year−1) from estimated forest conversion from 2001 to 2010.

    Table S15. Urban reforestation maximum potential annual net C sequestration in 2025.

    Table S16. Uncertainty in urban reforestation average annual abatement (Tg CO2) by 2025 at a cost of USD 100 per Mg CO2.

    Table S17. Profitability impacts of cover crops for selected crops.

    Table S18. Marginal abatement costs of cover crops in the five primary crops.

    Table S19. Maximum feasible N2O reduction for multiple nitrogen fertilizer practices.

    Table S20. Results from the literature of the potential for reducing N fertilizer rate using within-field management.

    Table S21. Current and projected GHG emissions from nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing in the United States.

    Table S22. Mitigation potential for grazing optimization and legumes in pasture NCS at different marginal abatement costs.

    Table S23. Areas and carbon fluxes for Histosols in the conterminous United States.

    Table S24. Peatland restoration mitigation calculations for climate zones within the United States.

    Table S25. 95% CIs for Histosol calculations.

    References (64398)

  • Supplementary Materials

    This PDF file includes:

    • Supplementary Materials and Methods
    • Fig. S1. Mapped reforestation opportunity areas in the lower 48 states.
    • Fig. S2. Conceptual framework for improved forest management carbon accounting.
    • Fig. S3. MAC for carbon sequestration through forest management and aging, after Golub et al. (99).
    • Fig. S4. MAC for natural forest management after Latta et al. (98) and best-fit functions.
    • Fig. S5. MAC curves for improved plantations.
    • Fig. S6. Fire management analysis area.
    • Fig. S7. Regions used for reporting avoided forest conversion results.
    • Fig. S8. Forest conversion from 1986 to 2000.
    • Fig. S9. Potential carbon emissions from areas at high risk of forest conversion.
    • Fig. S10. Cities included in the urban reforestation analysis.
    • Fig. S11. Calibration of remote sensing data for forest cover estimation in urban areas.
    • Fig. S12. Avoided grassland conversion map.
    • Fig. S13. MAC curve for avoided grassland conversion.
    • Fig. S14. Nitrogen fertilizer use in the United States.
    • Fig. S15. Marginal abatement cost curve for reducing N fertilizer rate.
    • Fig. S16. Marginal abatement cost curve for applying variable rate technology fertilizer application.
    • Fig. S17. Grazing optimization map.
    • Fig. S18. Legumes in pastures map.
    • Fig. S19. Grassland restoration map.
    • Fig. S20. MAC curve for grassland restoration.
    • Fig. S21. Break-even prices for GHG abatement from rice production.
    • Fig. S22. MAC curve for salt marsh restoration.
    • Fig. S23. MAC of avoided GHG emissions from seagrass.
    • Table S1. Mitigation potential of NCS in 2025.
    • Table S2. Co-benefits of NCS.
    • Table S3. Literature MAC estimates for reforestation of agricultural lands.
    • Table S4. Literature estimates of reforestation costs used to estimate MAC of reforesting natural ecosystems.
    • Table S5. Estimated marginal abatement cost of fire management by major forest region.
    • Table S6. Forest disturbance rates by source.
    • Table S7. Mean annual forest hectares cleared per year from 1986 to 2000.
    • Table S8. Mean annual forest hectares cleared per year from 2001 to 2010.
    • Table S9. Mean annual forest hectares converted per year from 1986 to 2000.
    • Table S10. Proportion of areas cleared from 1986 to 2000 that had not regenerated to forest by 2010.
    • Table S11. Mean predisturbance dry biomass (kg m−2) in forest areas converted from 1986 to 2000.
    • Table S12. Mean predisturbance dry biomass (kg m−2) in forest areas converted from 2001 to 2010.
    • Table S13. Carbon emissions (Mg C year−1) from estimated forest conversion from 2001 to 2010.
    • Table S14. Albedo-adjusted carbon emissions equivalent (Mg Ce year−1) from estimated forest conversion from 2001 to 2010.
    • Table S15. Urban reforestation maximum potential annual net C sequestration in 2025.
    • Table S16. Uncertainty in urban reforestation average annual abatement (Tg CO2) by 2025 at a cost of USD 100 per Mg CO2.
    • Table S17. Profitability impacts of cover crops for selected crops.
    • Table S18. Marginal abatement costs of cover crops in the five primary crops.
    • Table S19. Maximum feasible N2O reduction for multiple nitrogen fertilizer practices.
    • Table S20. Results from the literature of the potential for reducing N fertilizer rate using within-field management.
    • Table S21. Current and projected GHG emissions from nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing in the United States.
    • Table S22. Mitigation potential for grazing optimization and legumes in pasture NCS at different marginal abatement costs.
    • Table S23. Areas and carbon fluxes for Histosols in the conterminous United States.
    • Table S24. Peatland restoration mitigation calculations for climate zones within the United States.
    • Table S25. 95% CIs for Histosol calculations.
    • References (64398)

    Download PDF

    Files in this Data Supplement:

Navigate This Article