Research ArticleECOLOGY

Disease epidemic and a marine heat wave are associated with the continental-scale collapse of a pivotal predator (Pycnopodia helianthoides)

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Science Advances  30 Jan 2019:
Vol. 5, no. 1, eaau7042
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau7042
  • Fig. 1 Continental collapse of a pivotal predator: Deep offshore surveys.

    Mean biomass of sunflower star in 8968 deep offshore trawls (55 to 1280 m) from (A) Washington, (B) Oregon, and (C) California from 2004 to 2016 with 95% confidence interval in light blue. Gray line marks the year 2013 for comparison of SSWD initiation across regions. Yellow circles depict the 2013–2016 trawl locations. The trawls per jurisdiction per year are shown in the top of each plot.

  • Fig. 2 Continental collapse of a pivotal predator: Shallow nearshore surveys.

    (A to D) Percentage of shallow nearshore ACs of sunflower star (P. helianthoides) reported in roving-diver surveys from southern California to southern British Columbia, Canada, from 2006 to 2017 (blue scale bars, right axis). Black line, annual abundance score (left axis); red line, annual mean of the maximum temperature anomaly 60 days before each survey (whiskers, 95% confidence interval; left axis). (A) British Columbia. (B) Washington. (C) Oregon. (D) California. (E) Mean biomass (kg/10 m2) in belt transect surveys in central British Columbia, with 95% confidence interval in light blue. Yellow circles depict the 2013–2017 locations. The red rectangle depicts the area where the belt transect surveys were conducted. The surveys per jurisdiction per year are shown in the top of each plot. For other details, see Fig. 1.

  • Fig. 3 Ocean temperature anomaly averaged over the roving-diver survey locations for the three initial years of the epidemic.

    Blue, 2013; green, 2014; red, 2015. BC, British Columbia; WA, Washington; OR, Oregon; CA, California.

Supplementary Materials

  • Supplementary material for this article is available at http://advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/5/1/eaau7042/DC1

    Table S1. Summary of results of the candidate hierarchical ordinal regression models.

    Table S2. Parameter estimates, SEs, and 95% confidence interval of the selected ordinal model linking the reporting of ACs 0 to 4 in the shallow nearshore roving-diver surveys and maximum temperature anomalies from within 60 days before each survey.

    Fig. S1. Massive decline of P. helianthoides over 20 days between 9 and 29 October 2013.

    Fig. S2. Annual SST records during 2013, 2014, and 2015 by jurisdiction for British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California.

    Fig. S3. Sackinaw Rock before and after development of green urchin barrens following decimation of P. helianthoides.

  • Supplementary Materials

    This PDF file includes:

    • Table S1. Summary of results of the candidate hierarchical ordinal regression models.
    • Table S2. Parameter estimates, SEs, and 95% confidence interval of the selected ordinal model linking the reporting of ACs 0 to 4 in the shallow nearshore roving-diver surveys and maximum temperature anomalies from within 60 days before each survey.
    • Fig. S1. Massive decline of P. helianthoides over 20 days between 9 and 29 October 2013.
    • Fig. S2. Annual SST records during 2013, 2014, and 2015 by jurisdiction for British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California.
    • Fig. S3. Sackinaw Rock before and after development of green urchin barrens following decimation of P. helianthoides.

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