Science Advances

Supplementary Materials

This PDF file includes:

  • Levins’ metapopulation, turnover, and persistence models
  • Alternative demographic and transition matrix model specifications
  • Linking altered community dynamics with changes in community composition
  • fig. S1. Frequency of nest box censuses at the two experimental warming arrays.
  • fig. S2. Mean proportion of nest boxes occupied per chamber at Duke Forest.
  • fig. S3. Mean proportion of nest boxes colonized per chamber at Duke Forest.
  • fig. S4. Mean proportion of nest boxes that went extinct per chamber at Duke Forest.
  • fig. S5. Mean proportion of nest boxes occupied per chamber at Harvard Forest.
  • fig. S6. Mean proportion of nest boxes colonized per chamber at Harvard Forest.
  • fig. S7. Mean proportion of nest boxes that went extinct per chamber at Harvard Forest.
  • fig. S8. Equilibrium frequencies as a function of chamber temperature for each of the four focal species and empty nest boxes at Duke Forest.
  • fig. S9. Equilibrium frequencies as a function of chamber temperature for each of the five focal species and empty nest boxes at Harvard Forest.
  • fig. S10. Mean proportion of nest boxes occupied at equilibrium using Levins’ colonization-extinction formula at Duke Forest.
  • fig. S11. Mean proportion of nest boxes that turn over at Duke Forest.
  • fig. S12. Mean proportion of nest boxes occupied at equilibrium using Levins’ colonization-extinction formula at Harvard Forest.
  • fig. S13. Mean proportion of nest boxes that turn over at Harvard Forest.
  • fig. S14. Mean proportion of nest boxes that persisted to the next census per chamber at Duke Forest.
  • fig. S15. Mean proportion of nest boxes that persisted to the next census per chamber at Harvard Forest.
  • table S1. Observed transitions in the nest boxes at Duke and Harvard forests.
  • table S2. Models of species associations at Duke and Harvard forests.
  • table S3. Models of temperature effects at Duke Forest.
  • table S4. Models of temperature effects at Harvard Forest.
  • table S5. Models of community-wide responses.
  • table S6. Models of equilibrium frequency as functions of temperature.
  • table S7. Temperature dependence of individual transition probabilities.
  • table S8. Transition matrix correlates of community stability.

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