Table 1 Occupancy, colonization, extinction, and stability responses to warming.

For occupancy, colonization, and extinction, slope estimates ± 1 SE are from GLMs using a quasi-binomial error structure to examine the effect of MAT on community-wide occupancy, colonization, and extinction. F ratios and P values indicate the statistical significance of chamber temperature or site. The pseudo-r2 is calculated as 1 − (residual deviance / null deviance). For stability, slope estimates ± 1 SE are from simple linear regressions to examine the effect of MAT on stability (damping ratio) for each site considered separately and from an ANCOVA with separate intercepts for site and a common slope for MAT (the site × MAT interaction was not significant and was dropped from the final model).

Data subsetResponsePredictorEstimateSEFPr2
Duke ForestOccupancyMAT0.09650.029910.50.001560.0721
ColonizationMAT0.03380.04220.640.4250.00552
ExtinctionMAT−0.08340.037.750.006340.0678
Harvard ForestOccupancyMAT0.03620.03561.030.3130.00815
ColonizationMAT0.006260.03750.02780.8680.000221
ExtinctionMAT−0.06270.036430.08680.026
Duke ForestStabilityMAT−0.160.07934.0570.06510.238
Harvard ForestStabilityMAT−0.250.09217.380.01870.381
Both sites (common slope model)StabilityMAT−0.2010.059811.30.002370.347
Site−0.8610.4184.250.0494