Table 1 Probability of being in the top 5% of citations for scientific papers.

Logit regression estimates for three time periods indicate that the strong negative predictive relationship between Dμ and H and the strong positive relationship between Dθ and H shown in Figs. 1 and 5 hold across time, fields, paper, and reference characteristics. BIC model fit statistics “very strongly” indicate that models with Dμ and Dθ significantly and substantively fit the data better than control variable models (see Materials and Methods) [(25), p. 139]. Variance inflation factor statistics are 1.25 or 1.21, depending on the decade, and indicate no multicollinearity among the independent variables. ***P < 0.0001, **P < 0.001.

1980–19891990–20001950–2000
β (SE)β (SE)β (SE)β (SE)β (SE)β (SE)
Dμ−0.195*** (0.0008)−0.185*** (0.001)−0.203*** (0.0006)−0.179*** (0.001)−0.157*** (0.0004)−0.179*** (0.0006)
Dθ1.691*** (0.007)1.329*** (0.010)1.559*** (0.0056)1.410*** (0.007)1.776*** (0.004)1.367*** (0.10)
Reference-level controls
  P (Interdisciplinarity)1.954*** (0.024)1.892*** (0.021)1.909*** (0.030)
  A (Novelty)0.185*** (0.006)0.177*** (0.005)0.186*** (0.003)
  C (Conventionality)0.239*** (0.002)0.255*** (0.002)0.229*** (0.001)
  M (Reference quality)0.001*** (10−04)0.0006*** (10−04)0.001*** (6.5 × 10−06)
Paper fixed effects
  N (#Authors)YYY
  Y (Year)YYY
  R (#References)YYY
  S (Subfield)YYY
Obs.3,792,0383,627,6246,298,0056,099,78813,950,69113,387,366