Table 1 Contributions of fast and slow modes to equilibrium and historical warming.

The posterior median and 5 to 95% CI values for the time scale, τ, and feedback factors, λ, of individual eigenmodes are provided, along with the fraction of warming contributed in equilibrium and from historical forcing as of 2011.

Eigenmode parametersMedian5%95%
τ1 (years)0.80.22.6
λ1 (W/m2 per°C)1.60.44.0
Contribution to inferred equilibrium warming24%10%40%
Contribution to historical warming47%26%75%
τ2 (years)9437
λ2 (W/m2 per°C)1.40.82.8
Contribution to inferred equilibrium warming32%15%48%
Contribution to historical warming49%24%72%
τ3 (years)350180960
λ3 (W/m2 per°C)0.80.31.6
Contribution to equilibrium warming44%28%66%
Contribution to historical warming3%1%7%