Table 1 Correlation skill of average reconstructed GST and CMIP5 average GST with WMO GST.
PeriodLow pass (r)Significance (%)PeriodHigh pass (r)Significance (%)
A. Slowdown period 1, 1896–1910
Reconstruction, ≥2 months0.660.12–10 months0.32<0.01
Reconstruction, ≥2 seasons0.720.22–10 seasons0.322.0
Reconstruction, ≥2 years0.782.02–10 years0.800.05
CMIP5, ≥2 months−0.342–10 months0.14
CMIP5, ≥2 seasons−0.472–10 seasons0.341.0
CMIP5, ≥2 years−0.752–10 years−0.47
B. Warming period 1, 1911–1940
Reconstruction, ≥2 months0.67<0.012–10 months0.39<0.01
Reconstruction, ≥2 seasons0.710.022–10 seasons0.39<0.01
Reconstruction, ≥2 years0.780.52–10 years0.590.1
CMIP5, ≥2 months0.380.52–10 months0.160.5
CMIP5, ≥2 seasons0.432–10 seasons0.19
CMIP5, ≥2 years0.522–10 years−0.52
C. Slowdown period 2, 1951–1975
Reconstruction, ≥2 months0.64<0.012–10 months0.135.0
Reconstruction, ≥2 seasons0.72<0.012–10 seasons0.360.05
Reconstruction, ≥2 years0.80<0.012–10 years0.81<0.01
CMIP5, ≥2 months0.242–10 months−0.02
CMIP5, ≥2 seasons0.272–10 seasons0.03
CMIP5, ≥2 years0.312–10 years0.28
D. Warming period 2, 1976–1997
Reconstruction, ≥2 months0.80<0.012–10 months0.28<0.01
Reconstruction, ≥2 seasons0.86<0.012–10 seasons0.51<0.01
Reconstruction, ≥2 years0.940.012–10 years0.87<0.01
CMIP5, ≥2 months0.580.52–10 months0.161.0
CMIP5, ≥2 seasons0.650.52–10 seasons0.20
CMIP5, ≥2 years0.760.12–10 years0.505.0
E. Slowdown period 3, 1998–2013
Reconstruction, ≥2 months0.60<0.012–10 months0.250.05
Reconstruction, ≥2 seasons0.690.052–10 seasons0.370.5
Reconstruction, ≥2 years0.840.12–10 years0.800.02
CMIP5, ≥2 months0.345.02–10 months0.09
CMIP5, ≥2 seasons0.412–10 seasons0.20
CMIP5, ≥2 years0.542–10 years0.26