Table 1 Selected time-lagged linear regressions (labeled models M2, M5, etc.) between secularization (S), development (GDP), tolerance (V), and education (E).

The time lag is y = 2 decades in all cases (results for y = 1, 2, and 3 decades in table S14). SEs, in parentheses, were determined from the inverse of the negative Hessian matrix (44). N is the number of data points for each autoregression, n is the number of countries included in the data set, i is the percentage of residual variance explained by the random effect (country), and h is the percentage explained by cultural heritage. R2 is the total variance explained. Bonferroni-corrected significance: *P < 0.1, **P < 0.05, ****P < 0.01.

ModelM2M5M8M11M14M17
VariableSGDPSGDPSGDP
Fixed effect
  GDPt−2−0.02 (0.03)0.87 (0.04)***−0.01 (0.03)0.78 (0.04)***−0.04 (0.05)0.83 (0.05)***
  St−20.97 (0.02)***0.28 (0.03)****0.99 (0.04)***0.01 (0.04)0.97 (0.02)***0.22 (0.02)***
  Vt−2−0.02 (0.03)0.32 (0.04)***
  Et−20.14 (0.2)0.97 (0.19)***
Random effect
  i0.14***0.21***0.14***0.19***0.15***0.16***
  h0.14***0.12*0.14***0.10.12*0.09
Summary
  R20.990.890.990.90.990.91
  N324469324469274382
  n95101951016970