Table 1 Model performance.

Bayesian evidences (Z) and maximum likelihoods (Embedded Image) from our combined fits using Kepler and new HST data. Kepler plus HST fits. The subscripts are P for the planet model, T for the planetary TTV model, Z for the zero-radius moon model, and M for the moon model. The three columns are for each trend model attempted.

LinearQuadraticExponential
Embedded Image6302.79 ± 0.116306.68 ± 0.116308.41 ± 0.11
Embedded Image6304.86 ± 0.116308.81 ± 0.126310.71 ± 0.11
Embedded Image6306.84 ± 0.116311.12 ± 0.126310.82 ± 0.12
Embedded Image6315.73 ± 0.126312.92 ± 0.126314.01 ± 0.12
Embedded Image1.00 ± 0.22*
Embedded Image25.88 ± 0.3212.47 ± 0.3311.19 ± 0.32
Embedded Image21.72 ± 0.338.21 ± 0.3417.81 ± 0.33
Embedded Image17.77 ± 0.333.61 ± 0.336.38 ± 0.34
Embedded Image18.66*
Embedded Image54.9341.0441.57
Embedded Image35.6923.9723.97
Embedded Image33.6819.5919.22

*Values derived using the Kepler data in isolation.