Research ArticleECOLOGY

Estimating the global conservation status of more than 15,000 Amazonian tree species

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Science Advances  20 Nov 2015:
Vol. 1, no. 10, e1500936
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1500936
  • Fig. 1 Estimated population declines and threat status of Amazonian tree species under historical deforestation and two projected deforestation scenarios.

    Historical deforestation (A to C). Projected deforestation (D to I). Top row: Percent population loss of 4953 tree species in the entire Amazon and in six Amazonian regions. Middle row: Percent species in a DGC estimated as globally threatened based on projected (including historical) forest loss (IUCN A2 and A4; n = 4953). Bottom row: Proportion of all 15,200 Amazonian tree species estimated to be globally threatened based on four different IUCN threat criteria. BAU: projected (including historical) deforestation through 2050 based on a BAU scenario (1, 2); IGS: projected (including historical) deforestation through 2050 based on an IGS (1, 2). Cristalino State Park is the small black polygon in southeastern Amazonia, encircled in (B). CA, Central Amazonia; GS, Guiana Shield; WAS, Southwestern Amazonia; WAN, Northwestern Amazonia; SA, Southern Amazonia; EA, Eastern Amazonia; CR, critically endangered; EN, endangered; VU, vulnerable.

  • Table 1 Number of Amazonian tree species estimated to qualify as globally threatened under four IUCN threat status criteria.

    Numbers of threatened species are nonoverlapping (that is, species listed for C1 did not qualify for A4). BAU = projected (including historical) deforestation through 2050 based on a BAU scenario (1, 2); IGS = projected (including historical) deforestation through 2050 based on an IGS (1, 2).

    Forest loss
    1900–2013
    Forest loss
    1900–2050 (BAU)
    Forest loss
    1900–2050 (IGS)
    Total number of species15,20015,20015,200
    Number of species with >30% observed population decline to date (IUCN A2)1309
    Number of species with >30% projected population decline over three
    generations (IUCN A4)
    70333364
    Number of species with >10% projected population decline over three
    generations and <10,000 individuals (IUCN C1)
    3844
    Number of species with <1000 individuals (IUCN D1)250516192107
    Total number of threatened species381486905515
    Percentage of all species threatened255736

Supplementary Materials

  • Supplementary material for this article is available at http://advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/1/10/e1500936/DC1

    Use of the IUCN threat criteria

    Caveats regarding deforestation scenarios

    Caveats regarding population models

    Caveats regarding the interaction between tree species populations and forest loss

    Fig. S1. Map of Amazonia showing the location of the 1485 ATDN plots that contributed data to this report.

    Fig. S2. Map of lowland forests in the Amazon.

    Fig. S3. Total deforestation of the Amazon by 2013.

    Fig. S4. Deforestation and tree population declines in the Amazon.

    Fig. S5. Deforestation and tree population declines of rare species in the Amazon.

    Table S1. Deforestation and tree population declines of rare species in the Amazon.

    Fig. S6. Projected (including historical) deforestation in the Amazon by 2050 in the BAU scenario.

    Fig. S7. Projected (including historical) deforestation in the Amazon by 2050 in the IGS.

    Fig. S8. Protected areas and indigenous territories in the Amazon.

    Fig. S9. How much of the Amazon is protected and how many individual trees do protected areas protect?

    Fig. S10. Rare species in protected areas and indigenous territories.

    Table S2. Rare species in protected areas and indigenous territories.

    Fig. S11. Protected areas and indigenous territories in the Amazon with deforestation according to BAU scenario 2050.

    Fig. S12. Protected areas and indigenous territories in the Amazon with deforestation according to IGS 2050.

    Fig. S13. How much forest loss has taken place and will take place in Amazonian protected areas?

    Fig. S14. Decline in relative population size shows no relationship with original population size in (A) BAU scenario and (B) IGS.

    Fig. S15. Interpolated stem density for the Amazon.

    Fig. S16. Interpolated identification level of plots in the Amazon.

    Fig. S17. Projected and observed deforestation in Amazonia from 2002 to 2013.

    Table S3. IUCN categories, designations, and conversion into SCRs (1) and SUIRs (2).

    Appendix S1. Data by DGC.

    Appendix S2. Data by species.

    Appendix S3. Data of individuals by region.

    Appendix S4. Tree species estimated to occur in Cristalino State Park in Brazil but not yet recorded there (32) and their estimated threat status according to historical and projected deforestation.

    Appendix S5. Plot metadata.

    References (3983)

  • Supplementary Materials

    This PDF file includes:

    • Use of the IUCN threat criteria
    • Caveats regarding deforestation scenarios
    • Caveats regarding population models
    • Caveats regarding the interaction between tree species populations and forest loss
    • Fig. S1. Map of Amazonia showing the location of the 1485 ATDN plots that contributed data to this report.
    • Fig. S2. Map of lowland forests in the Amazon.
    • Fig. S3. Total deforestation of the Amazon by 2013.
    • Fig. S4. Deforestation and tree population declines in the Amazon.
    • Fig. S5. Deforestation and tree population declines of rare species in the Amazon.
    • Table S1. Deforestation and tree population declines of rare species in the Amazon.
    • Fig. S6. Projected (including historical) deforestation in the Amazon by 2050 in the BAU scenario.
    • Fig. S7. Projected (including historical) deforestation in the Amazon by 2050 in the IGS.
    • Fig. S8. Protected areas and indigenous territories in the Amazon.
    • Fig. S9. How much of the Amazon is protected and how many individual trees do protected areas protect?
    • Fig. S10. Rare species in protected areas and indigenous territories.
    • Table S2. Rare species in protected areas and indigenous territories.
    • Fig. S11. Protected areas and indigenous territories in the Amazon with deforestation according to BAU scenario 2050.
    • Fig. S12. Protected areas and indigenous territories in the Amazon with deforestation according to IGS 2050.
    • Fig. S13. How much forest loss has taken place and will take place in Amazonian protected areas?
    • Fig. S14. Decline in relative population size shows no relationship with original population size in (A) BAU scenario and (B) IGS.
    • Fig. S15. Interpolated stem density for the Amazon.
    • Fig. S16. Interpolated identification level of plots in the Amazon.
    • Fig. S17. Projected and observed deforestation in Amazonia from 2002 to 2013.
    • Table S3. IUCN categories, designations, and conversion into SCRs (1) and SUIRs (2).
    • Legends for appendixes S1 to S5
    • References (39–83)

    Download PDF

    Other Supplementary Material for this manuscript includes the following:

    • Appendix S1 (Microsoft Excel format). Data by DGC.
    • Appendix S2 (Microsoft Excel format). Data by species.
    • Appendix S3 (Microsoft Excel format). Data of individuals by region.
    • Appendix S4 (Microsoft Excel format). Tree species estimated to occur in Cristalino State Park in Brazil but not yet recorded there (32) and their estimated threat status according to historical and projected deforestation.
    • Appendix S5 (Microsoft Excel format). Plot metadata.

    Download Appendix S1 to S5

    Files in this Data Supplement:

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