Research ArticleCLIMATE MODELING

Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

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Science Advances  24 Jun 2016:
Vol. 2, no. 6, e1501572
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1501572
  • Fig. 1 Response to GHG, aerosol, and all forcings.

    Multimodel mean difference between years 1850–1869 and 1986–2005 from climate model runs with only GHG (red), only aerosol (gray), and all forcings (blue) for global mean near-surface air temperature (top), precipitation (middle), and hydrological sensitivity (bottom). The models are grouped into cold, medium, and warm models based on 20th century warming in the historical (all-forcing) runs according to fig. S2. Boxes indicate medians and quartiles. The ranges indicate averages ± 1 SD.

  • Fig. 2 Regional precipitation response and additivity of responses to individual forcings.

    Multimodel averages of simulated surface precipitation change between years 1850–1869 and 1986–2005 in millimeters per day for GHG, aerosol, and all forcings, as well as the sum of the GHG- and aerosol-forcing experiments for models for which at least one aerosol run is available. Stippling indicates that six of seven models (where two very similar models have been considered as a single model) agree on the sign of the change.

  • Fig. 3 Future projections.

    Similar to Fig. 1 but showing differences between years 2006–2025 and 2081–2100 based on the rcp45 (brown) and the rcp85 (purple) CMIP5 future emission scenarios.

  • Table 1 Models.

    CNRM, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques; CERFACS, Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique; CSIRO, Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, in collaboration with the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence; LASG, State Key Laboratory Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Sciences and geophysical Fluid Dynamics; IAP, Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences; CESS, Center for Earth System Science, Tshinghua University; FIO, First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration; JAMSTEC, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology; AORI, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo; NIES, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Japan.

    ModelCenterReference
    bcc-csm1-1Beijing Climate Center(40)
    CanESM2/CanAM4Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis(41)
    CCSM4National Center for Atmospheric Research(42)
    CNRM-CM5CNRM-CM5 CNRM and CERFACS(43)
    CSIRO-Mk3-6-0CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research(44)
    FGOALS-g2LASG, IAP, CESS, and FIO(45)
    GFDL-CM3NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory(46)
    GFDL-ESM2NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory(47)
    GISS-E2-HNASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies(48)
    GISS-E2-RNASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies(48)
    HadGEM2-ESMet Office Hadley Centre(49)
    IPSL-CM5A-LRInstitut Pierre Simon Laplace(50)
    MIROC-ESMJAMSTEC, AORI, and NIES(51)
    MIROC-ESM-CHEMJAMSTEC, AORI, and NIES(51)
    MIROC5JAMSTEC, AORI, and NIES(52)
    MRI-CGCM3Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan(53)
    MPI-ESM-LRMax Planck Institute for Meteorology(54)
    NorESM1-MNorwegian Climate Centre(55)

Supplementary Materials

  • Supplementary material for this article is available at http://advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2/6/e1501572/DC1

    Notes regarding selected figures

    fig. S1. Hydrological sensitivity for fixed SST.

    fig. S2. Grouping of models according to 20th century temperature increase.

    fig. S3. Response to GHG, aerosol, and all forcings from individual models.

    fig. S4. Schematic representation of the hydrological sensitivity to various forcings.

    fig. S5. Zonal mean precipitation change from individual models.

    fig. S6. Maps of surface precipitation change from individual models (part1).

    fig. S7. Maps of surface precipitation change from individual models (part2).

    fig. S8. Global mean atmospheric overturning circulation changes for GHG, aerosol, and all forcings.

    fig. S9. As fig. S8 for individual model runs.

    table S1. Hydrological sensitivity (% K−1).

    table S2. Treatment of indirect (cloud-aerosol) radiative effects in the historical runs.

    table S3. CMIP5 experiments used in this study.

    table S4. Number of runs per model used in this study.

    Reference (56)

  • Supplementary Materials

    This PDF file includes:

    • Notes regarding selected figures
    • fig. S1. Hydrological sensitivity for fixed SST.
    • fig. S2. Grouping of models according to 20th century temperature increase.
    • fig. S3. Response to GHG, aerosol, and all forcings from individual models.
    • fig. S4. Schematic representation of the hydrological sensitivity to various forcings.
    • fig. S5. Zonal mean precipitation change from individual models.
    • fig. S6. Maps of surface precipitation change from individual models (part1).
    • fig. S7. Maps of surface precipitation change from individual models (part2).
    • fig. S8. Global mean atmospheric overturning circulation changes for GHG, aerosol, and all forcings.
    • fig. S9. As fig. S8 for individual model runs.
    • table S1. Hydrological sensitivity (% K−1).
    • table S2. Treatment of indirect (cloud-aerosol) radiative effects in the historical runs.
    • table S3. CMIP5 experiments used in this study.
    • table S4. Number of runs per model used in this study.
    • Reference (56)

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