Research ArticleRESEARCH METHODS

The accuracy, fairness, and limits of predicting recidivism

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Science Advances  17 Jan 2018:
Vol. 4, no. 1, eaao5580
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aao5580

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Tables

  • Table 1 Human versus COMPAS algorithmic predictions from 1000 defendants.

    Human versus COMPAS algorithmic predictions from 1000 defendants.. Overall accuracy is specified as percent correct, AUC-ROC, and criterion sensitivity (d′) and bias (β). See also Fig. 1.

    (A) Human
    (no race)
    (B) Human
    (race)
    (C) COMPAS
    Accuracy (overall)67.0%66.5%65.2%
    AUC-ROC (overall)0.710.710.70
    d′/β (overall)0.86/1.020.83/1.030.77/1.08
    Accuracy (black)68.2%66.2%64.9%
    Accuracy (white)67.6%67.6%65.7%
    False positive (black)37.1%40.0%40.4%
    False positive (white)27.2%26.2%25.4%
    False negative (black)29.2%30.1%30.9%
    False negative (white)40.3%42.1%47.9%

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