Amazon Tipping Point

Close to the Edge: Where the Amazon Drought Begins

In Brazil, the risk of Amazon savannization (1) occurs together with Caatinga and Cerrado (Brazilian Savanna) desertification (2). In the state of Maranhão (33,2 million hectares), natural and cultural diversity are extraordinary due to its particular position in the transition between these biomes. Nonetheless, the state faces water shortages and severe poverty (3); this picture can worsen with IPCC climate change prognosis of precipitation drop and lack of climate smart policies.

In the Amazon, 75% of the forest coverage was cut down; the remainder is threatened by illegal deforestation and forest fires (4). Indigenous people are victim of violence associated with deforestation. Rivers are dying because of silting, a consequence of land degradation and high geological vulnerability. Lost biodiversity is unknown by science. Although Maranhão has passed the deforestation “tipping point”, no policies for “Zero Deforestation” or land restoration are being implemented yet.

In Cerrado, replacement of natural ecosystem by single-cropping recycles 60% less water, reducing precipitation (5). However, up to 6.7 million hectares of native vegetation is legally available for agricultural conversion in Maranhão (6). The government endorses this trend through a tax reduction on crops as soybean (7) and infrastructure investment for commodity exportation. Commodity prices boost land speculation (8). Expropriation and violence against traditional communities (8) are happening along with biodiversity extinction (9) and large-scale contamination by agrochemicals (10).

Long-term human development and agricultural resilience depend on services provided by natural ecosystems, particularly water regulation. Large-scale restoration and conservation commitments by Brazil must optimize the hydrological cycle and welfare outcomes in all biomes. For that, the scientific community must urgently identify priority areas, and appropriate methods. Given its strategic location, Maranhão is a determinant piece of this puzzle. In its natural and cultural diversity lie the resources to restore and prevent draining off.

References

1. Lovejoy, T.E.; and Nobre, C. Amazon Tipping Point. Science Advances 4(2), eaaat22340. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aat2340

2. Ministério do Meio Ambiente (MMA). Atlas das áreas susceptíveis à desertificação do Brasil. 2007. Brasília: MMA, 2007. Avaiable at: http://www.mma.gov.br/estruturas/sedr_desertif/_arquivos/129_08122008042...

3. UNDP. Atlas of Human Development in Brazil. Avaiable at: http://atlasbrasil.org.br/

4. Celentano, D.; et al. 2017. Towards zero deforestation and forest restoration in the Amazon region of Maranhão state, Brazil. Land Use Policy 68: 692-698. DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.07.041

5. Spera, S.A.; et al. 2016. Land-use change affects water recycling in Brazil's last agricultural frontier. Global Change Biologogy 22(10):3405-13. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13298

6. Soares-Filho; et al. 2014. Cracking Brazil’s Forest Code (SM). Science 344, 363 DOI: 10.1126/science.124663.

7. Maranhão Decree Nº 33.110 (2017). Avaiable at: h
ttp://www.stc.ma.gov.br/legisla-documento/?id=4783

8. Pitta, F.T.; Vega, G.C. 2017. Impacts of agribusiness expansion in the Matopiba region: communities and the environment. ActionAid : Rio de Janeiro. Avaiable at: http://actionaid.org.br/wp-content/files_mf/1520602943ACTIONAID_MATOPIBA...

9. Newbold, T.; et al. 2016. Has land use pushed terrestrial biodiversity beyond the planetary boundary? A global assessment Science 353 (6296), 288-291. DOI: 10.1126/science.aaf2201

10. Bombardi, L.M. 2017. Geografia do Uso de Agrotóxicos no Brasil e Conexões com a União Européia. Laboratório de Geografia Agrária. FFLCH – USP: São Paulo. Avaiable at:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ci7nzJPm_J6XYNkdv_rt-nbFmOETH80G/view

D. Celentano, G V. Andrade, N. Figueiredo and G X. Rousseau have research projects financed by FAPEMA, Capes and CNPq.