Fig. 1 Economic and fiscal responses to migration shocks. Year 0 stands for the year of the shock. We set the size of a shock on the net flow of migrants or the flow of asylum seekers to 1 incoming individual per thousand inhabitants. For per capita, GDP, spending, and net taxes, we expressed the responses in percentage change; for the unemployment rate and fiscal balance/GDP, the responses are in percentage point change. The solid line gives the estimated impulse responses. The dashed lines give the 90% confidence intervals that are generated by 5000 Monte Carlo repetitions.
Fig. 2 Migration responses to migration shocks. Year 0 stands for the year of the shock. We set the size of a shock on the net flow of migrants or the flow of asylum seekers to 1 incoming individual per thousand inhabitants. We expressed the responses in per 1000 point change. The solid line gives the estimated impulse responses. The dashed lines give the 90% confidence intervals that are generated by 5000 Monte Carlo repetitions.
- Table 1 Economic and fiscal Responses to migration shocks.
Year 0 stands for the year of the shock. We set the size of a shock on the net flow of migrants or the flow of asylum seekers to 1 incoming individual per thousand inhabitants. For per capita, GDP, spending, and net taxes, we expressed the responses in percentage change; for the unemployment rate and fiscal balance/GDP, the responses are in percentage point change.
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 5 Year 10 Increase in the flow of asylum seekers Spending per capita 0.28 0.33 0.34 0.58 0.24 Net taxes per capita 0.57 0.63 1.01 1.31* 0.20 GDP per capita 0.27 0.45 0.54 0.59* 0.13 Unemployment rate −0.08* −0.15* −0.21* −0.21* −0.02 Fiscal balance/GDP 0.06 0.07 0.15 0.15 −0.01 Increase in the net flow of migrants Spending per capita 0.29* 0.49* 0.60* 0.33* −0.02 Net taxes per capita 0.85* 1.11* 0.95* 0.19 −0.09 GDP per capita 0.17* 0.24* 0.32* 0.12 −0.05 Unemployment rate −0.12* −0.16* −0.14* −0.03 0.01 Fiscal balance/GDP 0.11* 0.11* 0.05 −0.04 −0.02 *Statistical significance at the 10% level.
- Table 2 Migration responses to migration shocks.
Year 0 stands for the year of the shock. We set the size of a shock on the net flow of migrants or the flow of asylum seekers to 1 incoming individual per thousand inhabitants. We expressed the responses in per 1000 point change.
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 5 Year 10 Increase in the flow of asylum seekers Flow of asylum seekers 1.00* 0.80* 0.46* 0.08* 0.03 Net flow of migrants 0.28* 0.42* 0.61* 0.44* 0.05 Increase in the net flow of migrants Flow of asylum seekers 0.00 0.03* 0.03 0.02 0.00 Net flow of migrants 1.00* 0.92* 0.57* 0.06 0.00 *Statistical significance at the 10% level.
Supplementary Materials
Supplementary material for this article is available at http://advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/4/6/eaaq0883/DC1
Supplementary Materials and Methods
Supplementary Results
fig. S1. Net flow of migrants and flow of asylum seekers in 15 European countries, 1985–2015, annual data.
fig. S2. Responses to fiscal shocks in baseline model.
fig. S3. Responses to fiscal shocks in baseline model using cyclically adjusted net taxes.
fig. S4. Responses to fiscal shocks in model including migration variables.
table S1. Summary statistics, averages per country over the sample period (1985–2015).
table S2. Responses to fiscal shocks.
table S3. Economic and fiscal responses to migration shocks, robustness analysis.
References (32–37)
Additional Files
Supplementary Materials
This PDF file includes:
- Supplementary Materials and Methods
- Supplementary Results
- fig. S1. Net flow of migrants and flow of asylum seekers in 15 European countries, 1985–2015, annual data.
- fig. S2. Responses to fiscal shocks in baseline model.
- fig. S3. Responses to fiscal shocks in baseline model using cyclically adjusted net taxes.
- fig. S4. Responses to fiscal shocks in model including migration variables.
- table S1. Summary statistics, averages per country over the sample period (1985–2015).
- table S2. Responses to fiscal shocks.
- table S3. Economic and fiscal responses to migration shocks, robustness analysis.
- References (32–37)
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