Research ArticleECONOMICS

Macroeconomic evidence suggests that asylum seekers are not a “burden” for Western European countries

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Science Advances  20 Jun 2018:
Vol. 4, no. 6, eaaq0883
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaq0883
  • Fig. 1 Economic and fiscal responses to migration shocks.

    Year 0 stands for the year of the shock. We set the size of a shock on the net flow of migrants or the flow of asylum seekers to 1 incoming individual per thousand inhabitants. For per capita, GDP, spending, and net taxes, we expressed the responses in percentage change; for the unemployment rate and fiscal balance/GDP, the responses are in percentage point change. The solid line gives the estimated impulse responses. The dashed lines give the 90% confidence intervals that are generated by 5000 Monte Carlo repetitions.

  • Fig. 2 Migration responses to migration shocks.

    Year 0 stands for the year of the shock. We set the size of a shock on the net flow of migrants or the flow of asylum seekers to 1 incoming individual per thousand inhabitants. We expressed the responses in per 1000 point change. The solid line gives the estimated impulse responses. The dashed lines give the 90% confidence intervals that are generated by 5000 Monte Carlo repetitions.

  • Table 1 Economic and fiscal Responses to migration shocks.

    Year 0 stands for the year of the shock. We set the size of a shock on the net flow of migrants or the flow of asylum seekers to 1 incoming individual per thousand inhabitants. For per capita, GDP, spending, and net taxes, we expressed the responses in percentage change; for the unemployment rate and fiscal balance/GDP, the responses are in percentage point change.

    Year 0Year 1Year 2Year 5Year 10
    Increase in the flow of asylum seekers
    Spending per capita0.280.330.340.580.24
    Net taxes per capita0.570.631.011.31*0.20
    GDP per capita0.270.450.540.59*0.13
    Unemployment rate−0.08*−0.15*−0.21*−0.21*−0.02
    Fiscal balance/GDP0.060.070.150.15−0.01
    Increase in the net flow of migrants
    Spending per capita0.29*0.49*0.60*0.33*−0.02
    Net taxes per capita0.85*1.11*0.95*0.19−0.09
    GDP per capita0.17*0.24*0.32*0.12−0.05
    Unemployment rate−0.12*−0.16*−0.14*−0.030.01
    Fiscal balance/GDP0.11*0.11*0.05−0.04−0.02

    *Statistical significance at the 10% level.

    • Table 2 Migration responses to migration shocks.

      Year 0 stands for the year of the shock. We set the size of a shock on the net flow of migrants or the flow of asylum seekers to 1 incoming individual per thousand inhabitants. We expressed the responses in per 1000 point change.

      Year 0Year 1Year 2Year 5Year 10
      Increase in the flow of asylum seekers
      Flow of asylum seekers1.00*0.80*0.46*0.08*0.03
      Net flow of migrants0.28*0.42*0.61*0.44*0.05
      Increase in the net flow of migrants
      Flow of asylum seekers0.000.03*0.030.020.00
      Net flow of migrants1.00*0.92*0.57*0.060.00

      *Statistical significance at the 10% level.

      Supplementary Materials

      • Supplementary material for this article is available at http://advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/4/6/eaaq0883/DC1

        Supplementary Materials and Methods

        Supplementary Results

        fig. S1. Net flow of migrants and flow of asylum seekers in 15 European countries, 1985–2015, annual data.

        fig. S2. Responses to fiscal shocks in baseline model.

        fig. S3. Responses to fiscal shocks in baseline model using cyclically adjusted net taxes.

        fig. S4. Responses to fiscal shocks in model including migration variables.

        table S1. Summary statistics, averages per country over the sample period (1985–2015).

        table S2. Responses to fiscal shocks.

        table S3. Economic and fiscal responses to migration shocks, robustness analysis.

        References (3237)

      • Supplementary Materials

        This PDF file includes:

        • Supplementary Materials and Methods
        • Supplementary Results
        • fig. S1. Net flow of migrants and flow of asylum seekers in 15 European countries, 1985–2015, annual data.
        • fig. S2. Responses to fiscal shocks in baseline model.
        • fig. S3. Responses to fiscal shocks in baseline model using cyclically adjusted net taxes.
        • fig. S4. Responses to fiscal shocks in model including migration variables.
        • table S1. Summary statistics, averages per country over the sample period (1985–2015).
        • table S2. Responses to fiscal shocks.
        • table S3. Economic and fiscal responses to migration shocks, robustness analysis.
        • References (32–37)

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