Research ArticleAGRICULTURE

China’s livestock transition: Driving forces, impacts, and consequences

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Science Advances  18 Jul 2018:
Vol. 4, no. 7, eaar8534
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aar8534
  • Fig. 1 Concept of the livestock transition in China between 1980 and 2010.

    The left- and right-hand graphs show the crop production (bottom), livestock production (middle), and the consumption of food (top). Solid arrows represent nutrient inputs and outputs; the dotted arrows represent nutrient recycling flows. The thickness of the arrows reflects the size of the flows. Draft is the draft power provided by the draft animals.

  • Fig. 2 Changes of livestock production structure, resources demand, and environmental performance from 1980 to 2010.

    (A and B) Livestock number and systems (in LUs). (C to E) Production performance: animal protein production and economic value. Nutrient use and recycling: external resources dependency indicator expressed in cereals feed dependency (F), manure nitrogen recycle rate (G), new nitrogen dependency (H), and imported feed nitrogen (I). Feed and land use: corn (J), soybean (K), grass (L), and land requirement for manure application (M). Environmental pollution: GHG emissions (N), NH3-N emissions (O), and N losses to watercourses (P). Soybean includes soybean and soybean cakes. Feed is expressed as DM. Land for manure application is defined as the area of land needed to apply the manure at an application rate of 170 kg N ha−1 per year.

  • Fig. 3 Driving forces of livestock transition in China.

    Relationships between livestock number (in LUs), the percentage of monogastric animals (in LUs) to total number of animals (in LUs), and the percentage of livestock in landless systems (percentage of landless) versus human population (A), average GDP value per capita (B), urbanization (C), and years of the introduction of governmental support policies (D). For details about the livestock production support policies, see table S2.

  • Fig. 4 Changes of production efficiency in terms of animal protein produced.

    Changes in livestock production efficiency between 1980 and 2010: feed use per unit protein produced (A), land use per unit protein produced (B), new nitrogen (N) use per unit protein produced (C), GHG emission per unit protein produced (D), reactive N (Nr) losses per unit protein produced (E), NUE (nitrogen use efficiency) at herd level (F), and NUE at the whole system level (G). NUE was calculated at herd level, including all main livestock categories, breeding animals, and replacement animals (cattle, pig, poultry, and sheep and goat) and at system level, including the whole soil-feed-livestock production chain.

  • Fig. 5 Response of China’s livestock transition in 2050 under different scenarios.

    Livestock density at province level in China in 1980 and 2010.

  • Fig. 6

    Changes in livestock production performance between 1980 and 2010 and forecasts for 2050 following the SSPs SSP2 and SSP1e: total feed use (A), total land use (B), total GHG emissions (C), total reactive N (Nr) losses (D), NUE at herd level (E), and NUE at whole system level (F). Soybean includes both soybean and processed (for example, soybean cake).

Supplementary Materials

  • Supplementary material for this article is available at http://advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/4/7/eaar8534/DC1

    Supplementary Text

    Fig. S1. Changes of livestock population structure of different livestock categories in China between 1980 and 2010.

    Fig. S2. Changes of feed import and contributions to livestock transition.

    Fig. S3. Changes of livestock performances in terms of animal protein production.

    Fig. S4. Production of animal source food products in 2010 and demand for animal source food in 2050.

    Fig. S5. Response of livestock transition under different sub-scenarios in 2050.

    Fig. S6. Changes in the areas of domestic arable land used for feed production and virtual land via trade of feed products between 1980 and 2010.

    Fig. S7. System boundary and calculation compartment of livestock transition.

    Fig. S8. Relationships between urbanization and livestock product consumption per capita in China.

    Fig. S9. Relationship between per capita GDP and livestock product consumption per capita in China.

    Fig. S10. Changes over time in livestock product consumption per capita in China.

    Table S1. Animal source food consumption in 2010, and projections of animal source food demand in 2050, according to different literature sources. (kg capita−1 year−1).

    Table S2. List of livestock production related policies and subsidies in China.

    Table S3. Consumption, production, and import of animal food and livestock feed in China in 2010, their global trade in 2010, and their demands in 2050.

    Table S4. The egg yield of layers production systems at different growing stages in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010.

    Table S5. The LWG and metabolic weight (MW) of broiler production systems at different growing stages in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010.

    Table S6. The LWG and MW of beef and draught, and sheep and goat production systems in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010.

    Table S7. Feed compositions used in layer production systems at different growing stages (%).

    Table S8. Feed compositions used in broiler production systems at different growing stages (%).

    Table S9. Feed compositions used in beef and draught production systems and sheep and goat production systems (%).

    References (3965)

  • Supplementary Materials

    This PDF file includes:

    • Supplementary Text
    • Fig. S1. Changes of livestock population structure of different livestock categories in China between 1980 and 2010.
    • Fig. S2. Changes of feed import and contributions to livestock transition.
    • Fig. S3. Changes of livestock performances in terms of animal protein production.
    • Fig. S4. Production of animal source food products in 2010 and demand for animal source food in 2050.
    • Fig. S5. Response of livestock transition under different sub-scenarios in 2050.
    • Fig. S6. Changes in the areas of domestic arable land used for feed production and virtual land via trade of feed products between 1980 and 2010.
    • Fig. S7. System boundary and calculation compartment of livestock transition.
    • Fig. S8. Relationships between urbanization and livestock product consumption per capita in China.
    • Fig. S9. Relationship between per capita GDP and livestock product consumption per capita in China.
    • Fig. S10. Changes over time in livestock product consumption per capita in China.
    • Table S1. Animal source food consumption in 2010, and projections of animal source food demand in 2050, according to different literature sources. (kg capita−1 year−1).
    • Table S2. List of livestock production related policies and subsidies in China.
    • Table S3. Consumption, production, and import of animal food and livestock feed in China in 2010, their global trade in 2010, and their demands in 2050.
    • Table S4. The egg yield of layers production systems at different growing stages in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010.
    • Table S5. The LWG and metabolic weight (MW) of broiler production systems at different growing stages in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010.
    • Table S6. The LWG and MW of beef and draught, and sheep and goat production systems in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010.
    • Table S7. Feed compositions used in layer production systems at different growing stages (%).
    • Table S8. Feed compositions used in broiler production systems at different growing stages (%).
    • Table S9. Feed compositions used in beef and draught production systems and sheep and goat production systems (%).
    • References (3965)

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