A modest 0.5-m rise in sea level will double the tsunami hazard in Macau

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Science Advances  15 Aug 2018:
Vol. 4, no. 8, eaat1180
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aat1180

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  • The modest 0.5-m rise in sea level in Macau may require 2,000 rather than 42 years

    What the authors call “conservative” estimations of 50 cm sea level rise by 2060, and 1 meter by 2100, are gross exaggerations, as the sea levels haven’t accelerated at all over the world since the start of last century, and they haven’t rise at all in Macau.

    With data range 1925/1 to 1985/5, the monthly average mean sea levels (MSL) of MACAU are characterized by a slope 0.26 mm/yr. and an apparent negative acceleration -0.0880 mm/yr² (reliable accelerations may only be computed with minimum 100 years of data).

    With data range 1894/1 to 2018/4, the tide gauge record of Hosojima, the closest long-term-trend (LTT) station, show a sea level rise trend small negative, -0.0143 mm/yr. The sea level acceleration is negligible, 2·10-4 mm/yr2.

    In all the LTT neighboring tide stations of Japan, not affected by significant subsidence, Hosojima, Oshoro, Wajima, and Tonoura, the average sea level rate of rise is negligible, +0.08 mm/yr., and the sea level acceleration is negative, -0.0111 mm/yr².

    In the other LTT tide station of Japan, Aburatsubo, that is affected by subsidence, the sea level rate of rise is positive, 3.64 mm/yr., but still the acceleration is negative, -0.0066 mm/yr2.

    Across the Pacific, in the LTT tide stations of Sydney, Australia; Auckland and Dunedin, New Zealand, and Honolulu, HI, USA the average sea level rate of rise is also small, +1.21 mm/yr. and mostly explained by subsidence, and the real sea level acceleration is small, 0...

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    Competing Interests: None declared.
  • The probability of high tide should be considered in intensified coastal flooding hazard

    Linlin Li et al. wrote an article entitled “A modest 0.5-m rise in sea level will double the tsunami hazard in Macau” (1). See the Macau tide table for the next 7 days (2). The difference between high and low tide is more than 1 meter (2). In other words, the probability of hide tide should be considered for simulating storm-induced flooding. The probability of high tide strongly influences the simulation result including typhoon and tsunami-induced flooding.

    1. Linlin Li et al., A modest 0.5-m rise in sea level will double the tsunami hazard in Macau, Science Advances 15 Aug 2018: Vol. 4, no. 8, eaat1180

    Competing Interests: None declared.

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