Research ArticleCLIMATOLOGY

Amplified warming of droughts in southern United States in observations and model simulations

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Science Advances  01 Aug 2018:
Vol. 4, no. 8, eaat2380
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aat2380
  • Fig. 1 Temperature shift associated with each dryness condition.

    Average temperature shift relating to each condition (including all wet and dry conditions, at or under the D0 threshold, and at or under the D1 threshold). (A) We compare the period of 1965–2014 relative to a baseline period of 1902–1951 with the observed CRU data. (B) We compare the future period of 2050–2099 relative to the historical baseline period of 1951–2000 with the CMIP5 model average ensemble.

  • Fig. 2 Moisture shift associated with each dryness condition.

    Average shift between the period 1965–2014 relative to the baseline period of 1902–1951 associated with each dryness condition used in Fig. 1. (A) Observed average shift in relative humidity associated with each condition. (B) Observed average shift in VPD associated with each condition.

  • Fig. 3 Regional boxplots for observations.

    (A to G) Regional boxplots displaying the temperature shifts corresponding to each dryness condition for the CRU observations (1965–2014 relative to 1902–1951).

  • Fig. 4 Regional boxplots for model ensemble.

    (A to G) Regional boxplots displaying the temperature shifts corresponding to each dryness condition for the CMIP5 model ensemble (2050–2099 relative to 1951–2000).

  • Fig. 5 Distributional shift associated with southeastern United States.

    Distributional plots comparing the shifts between the D0 condition and the average climate for the southeastern region of the United States. (A) We compare the period of 1965–2014 relative to a baseline period of 1902–1951 with the observed CRU data. cdf, cumulative distribution function. (B) We compare the future period of 2050–2099 relative to the historical baseline of 1951–2000 with the CMIP5 model average ensemble.

Supplementary Materials

  • Supplementary material for this article is available at http://advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/4/8/eaat2380/DC1

    Fig. S1. Flowchart describing the research methodology.

    Fig. S2. Distributional shifts for observed United States.

    Fig. S3. Distributional shifts for projected United States.

    Table S1. CMIP5 climate models used.

  • Supplementary Materials

    This PDF file includes:

    • Fig. S1. Flowchart describing the research methodology.
    • Fig. S2. Distributional shifts for observed United States.
    • Fig. S3. Distributional shifts for projected United States.
    • Table S1. CMIP5 climate models used.

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