Research ArticleAPPLIED ECOLOGY

Climate change threatens New Guinea’s biocultural heritage

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Science Advances  27 Nov 2019:
Vol. 5, no. 11, eaaz1455
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaz1455
  • Fig. 1 Endemic plant species richness (number of species per grid cell) in the face of climate change.

    Species richness under current climate (A) and difference in species richness between current climate and 2070 RCP 2.6 (B) and 2070 RCP 8.5 (C).

  • Fig. 2 Change in species richness across New Guinea’s ecoregions under future climate (2070 RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5).

    Change in species richness per ecoregion was calculated using stacked SDMs of 2353 endemic species.

  • Fig. 3 Change in endemic useful plant richness across New Guinea’s language areas by 2070 RCP 8.5.

    Change in species richness per language area over time was calculated using stacked SDMs of 720 endemic useful species.

  • Fig. 4 Spatial conservation priorities for endemic plants in the face of climate change.

    Priority rank map for all endemic plants (n = 2353 species) (A), all endemic useful plants (n = 720 species) (B), useful plants for construction (n = 374) (C), culture (n = 271) (D), food (n = 162) (E), and medicine (n = 187) (F). In each map, each grid cell has a value between 0 and 100: Low values close to 0% were removed first (low conservation value and priority), while high values close to 100% were retained until the end (high priority).

  • Fig. 5 Congruence in top 10% conservation priorities for 2070 for endemic and useful plants.

    Map of administrative units (A) where numbers indicate administrative units of Indonesian New Guinea and Papua New Guinea containing the top 10% solutions: 1, Sorong; 2, Manokwari; 3, Biak Numfor; 4, Nabire; 5, Mimika; 6, Paniai; 7, Puncak Jaya; 8, Waropen; 9, Sarmi; 10, Jayawijaya; 11, Jayapura; 12, Yahukimo; 13, Pegunungan Bintang; 14, Boven Digoel; 15, Sandaun; 16, Western; 17, Hela; 18, East Sepik; 19, Enga; 20, Southern Highlands; 21, Western Highlands; 22, Jiwaka; 23, Chimbu; 24, Madang; 25, Eastern Highlands; 26, Morobe; 27, Central; 28, Milne Bay. Map of languages (B) that intersect with the top 10% solutions; dot color indicates language endangerment class.

Supplementary Materials

  • Supplementary material for this article is available at http://advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/5/11/eaaz1455/DC1

    Fig. S1. Predicted net gains and losses of useful endemic species across New Guinea’s languages by 2070 RCP 8.5.

    Fig. S2. Predicted difference in useful endemic species richness between current climate and 2070 RCP 8.5 for endangered (red) and nonendangered languages (green).

    Table S1. Predicted means (and ranges) of endemic plant species richness in 20 WWF ecoregions of New Guinea under current and future climate.

    Table S2. Predicted means (and ranges) of endemic useful plant richness in 1030 language areas under current and future climate in New Guinea.

    Table S3. Potential change in endemic useful plant richness across New Guinea’s languages from current to future climate.

  • Supplementary Materials

    This PDF file includes:

    • Fig. S1. Predicted net gains and losses of useful endemic species across New Guinea’s languages by 2070 RCP 8.5.
    • Fig. S2. Predicted difference in useful endemic species richness between current climate and 2070 RCP 8.5 for endangered (red) and nonendangered languages (green).
    • Table S1. Predicted means (and ranges) of endemic plant species richness in 20 WWF ecoregions of New Guinea under current and future climate.
    • Table S2. Predicted means (and ranges) of endemic useful plant richness in 1030 language areas under current and future climate in New Guinea.
    • Table S3. Potential change in endemic useful plant richness across New Guinea’s languages from current to future climate.

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