Research ArticleENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Benefits of the Paris Agreement to ocean life, economies, and people

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Science Advances  27 Feb 2019:
Vol. 5, no. 2, eaau3855
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau3855
  • Fig. 1 Conceptual diagram of the biophysical and economic models used in this study.

    NPP, net primary production; SST, sea surface temperature; t, metric tons.

  • Fig. 2 Effects meeting Paris Agreement targets.

    Effects of meeting Paris Agreement targets (1.5°C warming) on FRs relative to 3.5°C warming due to (A) changes in MCP, (B) changes in price as a result of changes in supply, and (C) net change to FRs from combined quantity and price effects. Projections are relative to the 2001–2010 period. Similar figures for other economic indicators are given in fig. S1.

  • Fig. 3 Projected gains in MCP.

    Projected gains in MCP (relative to the 2001–2010 period) if Paris Agreement targets are met (1.5°C relative to 3.5°C warming) and the 2015 CO2 emissions by (A) country and (B) continent (table S3). Larger point size indicates a greater proportion of protein derived from seafood, while the vertical line represents the median per capita CO2 emission levels. Note the log scale for CO2 emissions.

  • Table 1 Projected percentage differences of indicators relative to 2001–2010 period between two scenarios: +1.5°C warming Agreement target and +3.5°C warming relative to preindustrial levels.

    Values calculated from outputs of DBEM multimodel mean changes in abundance and catch are in bold, while values from outputs of DBEM lower and upper bounds are in parentheses below.

    FB gains
    (%)
    MCP gains
    (%)
    FR gains
    (%)
    SWI gains
    (%)
    Savings in
    HSE (%)
    Global6.5
    (1.4, 9.1)
    7.3
    (0.1, 14.1)
    7.4
    (5.3, 9.4)
    7.8
    (6.3, 10.6)
    3.2
    (−0.8, 5.3)
    Region
    Developing8.4
    (5.1, 12.2)
    11.4
    (6.6, 16.5)
    7.8
    (4.9, 9.4)
    8.4
    (5.8, 10.7)
    2.0
    (−2.2, 4.1)
    Developed−0.4
    (−11.9, 12.3)
    −0.3
    (−11.7, 9.7)
    6.8
    (5.2, 9.4)
    7.2
    (4.4, 10.5)
    4.5
    (0.6, 6.5)
    Africa8.4
    (6.7, 10.3)
    12.8
    (10.5, 14.2)
    6.9
    (4.9, 8.3)
    7.6
    (5.0, 9.4)
    3.5
    (0.0, 8.3)
    Asia10.1
    (7.4, 11.7)
    7.6
    (4.0, 11.1)
    6.8
    (3.0, 12.6)
    5.2
    (2.4, 9.6)
    2.5
    (−3.5, 6.2)
    Europe−1.7
    (−15.4, 13.1)
    −4.3
    (−18.4, 7.8)
    6.4
    (3.3, 8.0)
    6.2
    (3.6, 8.6)
    3.1
    (−4.8, 7.7)
    North America9.1
    (0.5, 19.5)
    9.7
    (2.1, 17.0)
    9.1
    (5.3, 12.5)
    9.7
    (4.8, 13.8)
    3.4
    (0.4, 5.4)
    Oceania5.0
    (2.9, 6.2)
    10.3
    (9.3, 11.3)
    4.0
    (2.4, 6.0)
    4.1
    (2.2, 6.5)
    7.1
    (5.1, 8.6)
    South America5.3
    (3.9, 6.3)
    14.1
    (7.1, 22.0)
    10.0
    (4.7, 17.5)
    10.8
    (4.7, 19.0)
    3.8
    (3.0, 4.9)

Supplementary Materials

  • Supplementary material for this article is available at http://advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/5/2/eaau3855/DC1

    Fig. S1. Projected differences taken between outcomes of meeting Paris Agreement targets.

    Fig. S2. Sensitivity analysis of economic indicators (FR, SWI, and HSE) to changes in price flexibilities aggregated globally, by region, and for select species.

    Table S1. Projected differences of indicators relative to 2001–2010 period between outcomes of meeting Paris Agreement targets (+1.5°C) and maintaining high greenhouse gas concentrations trajectory (+3.5°C) relative to preindustrial levels.

    Table S2. Current (2001–2010 average) annual values for fisheries indicators of the top 10 revenue-generating species for each country, grouped by continent.

    Table S3. Year in which target warming temperature is reached for each RCP within each ESM.

    Table S4. Price flexibility by marine species group and country development group.

    Table S5. Number of countries and their share in world marine capture catch, by share of exports volume in total domestic supply (2011–2015).

    Table S6. Estimated and observed domestic price percent changes for fish with 13% decrease in world price.

    Table S7. Multipliers used to determine impacts on SWI and HSE.

    Table S8. List of countries by geographic region and FAO development grouping.

    Table S9. Projected differences for the top 10 species by landed value globally taken between outcomes of meeting Paris Agreement targets (+1.5°C) and maintaining high emissions (+3.5°C).

    References (4158)

  • Supplementary Materials

    This PDF file includes:

    • Fig. S1. Projected differences taken between outcomes of meeting Paris Agreement targets.
    • Fig. S2. Sensitivity analysis of economic indicators (FR, SWI, and HSE) to changes in price flexibilities aggregated globally, by region, and for select species.
    • Table S1. Projected differences of indicators relative to 2001–2010 period between outcomes of meeting Paris Agreement targets (+1.5°C) and maintaining high greenhouse gas concentrations trajectory (+3.5°C) relative to preindustrial levels.
    • Table S2. Current (2001–2010 average) annual values for fisheries indicators of the top 10 revenue-generating species for each country, grouped by continent.
    • Table S3. Year in which target warming temperature is reached for each RCP within each ESM.
    • Table S4. Price flexibility by marine species group and country development group.
    • Table S5. Number of countries and their share in world marine capture catch, by share of exports volume in total domestic supply (2011–2015).
    • Table S6. Estimated and observed domestic price percent changes for fish with 13% decrease in world price.
    • Table S7. Multipliers used to determine impacts on SWI and HSE.
    • Table S8. List of countries by geographic region and FAO development grouping.
    • Table S9. Projected differences for the top 10 species by landed value globally taken between outcomes of meeting Paris Agreement targets (+1.5°C) and maintaining high emissions (+3.5°C).
    • References (4158)

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