Research ArticleENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Clean air for some: Unintended spillover effects of regional air pollution policies

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Science Advances  24 Apr 2019:
Vol. 5, no. 4, eaav4707
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aav4707
  • Fig. 1 Primary PM2.5 emission changes triggered by the JJJ clean air policy.

    (A) JJJ clean air policy. Red part shows the JJJ region. (B) Primary PM2.5 emission changes triggered by the JJJ clean air policy, with regions shaded according to primary PM2.5 total emissions. Yellow bars show the reduction in primary PM2.5 emissions in JJJ, and red bars show the increase in primary PM2.5 emissions in the rest of China. (C) Three-dimensional map of primary PM2.5 spillover from JJJ to other regions. (D) Mechanism of primary PM2.5 spillover from the policy target region (JJJ) and wealthier regions (YRD and PRD) to northern China. The colored arrows show the direction and amount of primary PM2.5 spillover to the provinces of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan.

  • Fig. 2 NH3, NOx, SO2, and NMVOC emission changes triggered by the JJJ clean air policy.

    Green bars show the decrease in NH3, NOx, SO2, and NMVOC emissions in JJJ, and blue bars show the increase in PM2.5 emissions in other regions, with regions shaded according to total NH3, NOx, SO2, and NMVOC emissions.

  • Fig. 3 Simulated change of surface air pollution in China.

    (A1) JJJ clean air policy impact, (B1) effect of outsourced emissions, and (C1) without outsourced emissions. (A2, B2, and C2) Maps zooming into the JJJ region. All figures include effects from changes in production and atmospheric transport of pollutants. Results are shown for monthly mean concentration of surface PM2.5 in January. The color scale is nonlinear to better present the wide range of impacts over different regions. The ambient PM2.5 concentration across China is simulated by the GEOS-Chem model using emissions under BAU, JJJ clean air policy scenario (AP), and outsourcing effects (OS) scenario (table S5). (A1) AP shows the overall changes of PM2.5 concentration due to the impacts of the JJJ clean air policy. (B1) OS shows the increase in PM2.5 concentration due to outsourcing, i.e., increase in production and pollution in the rest of China and associated atmospheric transport of pollution. (C1) AP without outsourcing illustrates the reduction in PM2.5 concentration due to the JJJ clean air policy without taking into consideration outsourcing of emissions to other regions in China.

  • Fig. 4 CO2 emission changes triggered by the JJJ clean air policy.

    Green bars show the decrease in CO2 emissions in JJJ, and blue bars show the increase in PM2.5 emissions in other regions, with regions shaded according to total CO2 emissions.

  • Fig. 5 Scarce water consumption changes triggered by the JJJ clean air policy.

    Green bars show the decrease in scarce water consumption in JJJ, and blue bars show the increase in scarce water consumption in other regions, with regions shaded according to the water stress index (WSI).

  • Fig. 6 Spillover effects of the JJJ air policy at the sectoral level.

    SPI of major sectors and total production and associated uncertainty levels.

Supplementary Materials

  • Supplementary material for this article is available at http://advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/5/4/eaav4707/DC1

    Table S1. JJJ clean air policy measures.

    Table S2. Concordance matrix from GAINS sectors to MRIO sectors.

    Table S3. Concordance matrix from GAINS sectors to MEIC sectors.

    Table S4. Concordance matrix from MRIO sectors to MEIC sectors.

    Table S5. Definitions of various atmospheric simulations used in atmospheric transport modeling.

    Table S6. Comparison of the actual and modeled JJJ emission reduction measures.

    Fig. S1. Schematic methodology for analyzing the spatial spillover and nexus effects of the JJJ clean air policy.

    Fig. S2. PM2.5 spillover effects of the JJJ clean air policy at the regional level.

    Fig. S3. Simulated surface air pollution in China.

    Fig. S4. Comparison of production-based emission estimates of this work (2010) and MEIC v.1.2 (2010) by sector and by region.

    Fig. S5. Comparisons between the simulated and observed monthly mean PM2.5 concentration.

    Fig. S6. Comparison of regional pollutant emissions from production- and consumption-based perspective (kt year−1).

    Fig. S7. Comparison of JJJ’s emissions generated by interprovincial exports with the research of Zhao et al.

    References (6694)

  • Supplementary Materials

    The PDF file includes:

    • Table S1. JJJ clean air policy measures.
    • Table S2. Concordance matrix from GAINS sectors to MRIO sectors.
    • Table S3. Concordance matrix from GAINS sectors to MEIC sectors.
    • Table S4. Concordance matrix from MRIO sectors to MEIC sectors.
    • Table S5. Definitions of various atmospheric simulations used in atmospheric transport modeling.
    • Table S6. Comparison of the actual and modeled JJJ emission reduction measures.
    • Fig. S1. Schematic methodology for analyzing the spatial spillover and nexus effects of the JJJ clean air policy.
    • Fig. S2. PM2.5 spillover effects of the JJJ clean air policy at the regional level.
    • Fig. S3. Simulated surface air pollution in China.
    • Fig. S4. Comparison of production-based emission estimates of this work (2010) and MEIC v.1.2 (2010) by sector and by region.
    • Fig. S5. Comparisons between the simulated and observed monthly mean PM2.5 concentration.
    • Fig. S6. Comparison of regional pollutant emissions from production- and consumption-based perspective (kt year−1).
    • Fig. S7. Comparison of JJJ’s emissions generated by interprovincial exports with the research of Zhao et al.
    • References (6694)

    Download PDF

    Other Supplementary Material for this manuscript includes the following:

    • Table S2 (Microsoft Excel format). Concordance matrix from GAINS sectors to MRIO sectors.
    • Table S3 (Microsoft Excel format). Concordance matrix from GAINS sectors to MEIC sectors.
    • Table S4 (Microsoft Excel format). Concordance matrix from MRIO sectors to MEIC sectors.

    Files in this Data Supplement:

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