Research ArticleECOLOGY

Mutualistic interactions reshuffle the effects of climate change on plants across the tree of life

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Science Advances  15 May 2019:
Vol. 5, no. 5, eaav2539
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aav2539
  • Fig. 1 Climate warming across Europe and geographic locations of the pollination networks.

    Color codes the predicted increase in maximum temperature of the warmest month between 2020 and 2080 (one of the five variables considered in the species distribution models used here). The warmer the color, the higher the increase in temperature between these time horizons. The points indicate the location of the seven networks, which are plotted in the insets with green and orange nodes representing plant and insect species, respectively. The different colors of the dots serve to identify each network in the following figures. The two darker colors in the South indicate the two Mediterranean networks, while the rest belong to the Eurosiberian region.

  • Fig. 2 Plant species extinctions and subsequent coextinction cascades for each pollination network across the two time horizons.

    Each panel compares the direct loss of species induced by climate change versus the same amount plus the subsequent coextinction cascades for 2050 and 2080. As in Fig. 1, the different colors identify the specific networks, with the darker and lighter colors representing the Mediterranean and Eurosiberian networks, respectively. For visualization purposes, different points are slightly displaced across the x axis when they overlap. Figure shows the average and SD fraction of species lost across 1000 replicates.

  • Fig. 3 Coextinctions may target different plant species than climatically induced primary extinctions.

    The figure shows the probability of coextinction for each plant species at each network versus its probability of being climatically driven to extinction at time horizon 2080. Species toward the right of the red x = y isocline show a higher vulnerability to climate, while those toward the left are more susceptible to the loss of biotic interactions. Details of the simulations are the same as in Fig. 2.

  • Fig. 4 The pruning of plants’ phylogenetic and functional trees through extinctions and subsequent coextinctions.

    Phylogenetic tree (A) and functional similarity dendrogram (B) of all plant species of the seven pollination networks. The inner color bar circle represents the probability of direct, climatically induced extinction. The outer circle, in turn, represents the overall probability of being driven to extinction by either climate or the subsequent coextinction cascades. Time horizon is 2080. Details of the simulations are the same as in Figs. 1 to 3. The total number of plant species is 244, and the extinction and coextinction probabilities are the average of 1000 replicates.

  • Fig. 5 Plant vulnerability across orders and functional groups.

    The figure shows the ranking of plant orders (A) and functional groups (B) to the overall risk of extinction and subsequent coextinctions for time horizon 2080. Figure represents the average and SD across 1000 replicates of climatically induced extinctions (gray) and those plus subsequent coextinctions (black). The different functional groups are as follows: group 1, open flowers, not clonal, wind dispersed; group 2, closed flowers, not clonal, wind dispersed; group 3, open flowers, not clonal, animal dispersed; group 4, open flowers, clonal, animal dispersed; group 5, closed flowers, not clonal, yellow, neither animal nor wind dispersed; group 6, closed flowers, not clonal, other colors, neither animal nor wind dispersed; group 7, open flowers, clonal, geophytes, neither animal nor wind dispersed; group 8, open flowers, not clonal, therophytes, neither animal nor wind dispersed; group 9, open flowers, not clonal, chamaerophytes, neither animal nor wind dispersed; group 10, open flowers, not clonal, geophytes, neither animal nor wind dispersed; group 11, closed flowers, clonal, hemicryptophytes, neither animal nor wind dispersed; group 12, closed flowers, clonal, hemicryptophytes, wind dispersed; group 13, open flowers, clonal, hemicryptophytes; group 14, open flowers, not clonal, hemicryptophytes; group 15, closed flowers, clonal, geophytes; group 16, open flowers, clonal, chamaephytes.

Supplementary Materials

  • Supplementary material for this article is available at http://advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/5/5/eaav2539/DC1

    Fig. S1. Plant phylogeny showing the plant species represented in the seven networks analyzed in this paper.

    Fig. S2. Same as in fig. S1 but showing plant species at each of the seven networks.

    Fig. S3. Boxplots showing the upper and lower extremes, quartiles, medians, and outliers of the probabilities of extinction of all species of each network for 2050 according to different RCM/GCM/SRES scenarios.

    Fig. S4. Same as in fig. S3 but for 2080.

    Fig. S5. Principal components analysis representing expected changes in climatic conditions at the locations of the seven pollination networks.

    Fig. S6. Correlation between the probability of plant coextinction estimated as the fraction of interactions lost (x axis; approach in the main text) and the equivalent figure estimated as the fraction of total interaction strength lost (y axis).

    Fig. S7. The phylogenetic signal (λ) is shown for each network separately for the time horizons 2050 and 2080.

    Fig. S8. Insect phylogeny showing the pollinator species represented in the seven networks analyzed in this paper.

    Table S1. Correlations between the extinction probabilities across climatic scenarios for 2050.

    Table S2. Same as in table S5 but for time horizon 2080.

    Table S3. Extinctions across the phylogeny.

    Table S4. Coextinctions across the phylogeny.

    Table S5. Extinctions across the functional similarity tree.

    Table S6. Coextinctions across the functional similarity tree.

    Table S7. Coextinctions across the insect phylogeny.

    Database S1. List of plant species, their traits for each of five categories, and their distribution range in number of cells with bibliographic source.

    Database S2. Plant extinction probabilities.

  • Supplementary Materials

    The PDF file includes:

    • Fig. S1. Plant phylogeny showing the plant species represented in the seven networks analyzed in this paper.
    • Fig. S2. Same as in fig. S1 but showing plant species at each of the seven networks.
    • Fig. S3. Boxplots showing the upper and lower extremes, quartiles, medians, and outliers of the probabilities of extinction of all species of each network for 2050 according to different RCM/GCM/SRES scenarios.
    • Fig. S4. Same as in fig. S3 but for 2080.
    • Fig. S5. Principal components analysis representing expected changes in climatic conditions at the locations of the seven pollination networks.
    • Fig. S6. Correlation between the probability of plant coextinction estimated as the fraction of interactions lost (x axis; approach in the main text) and the equivalent figure estimated as the fraction of total interaction strength lost (y axis).
    • Fig. S7. The phylogenetic signal (λ) is shown for each network separately for the time horizons 2050 and 2080.
    • Fig. S8. Insect phylogeny showing the pollinator species represented in the seven networks analyzed in this paper.
    • Table S1. Correlations between the extinction probabilities across climatic scenarios for 2050.
    • Table S2. Same as in table S5 but for time horizon 2080.
    • Table S3. Extinctions across the phylogeny.
    • Table S4. Coextinctions across the phylogeny.
    • Table S5. Extinctions across the functional similarity tree.
    • Table S6. Coextinctions across the functional similarity tree.
    • Table S7. Coextinctions across the insect phylogeny.

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    Other Supplementary Material for this manuscript includes the following:

    • Database S1 (Microsoft Excel format). List of plant species, their traits for each of five categories, and their distribution range in number of cells with bibliographic source.
    • Database S2 (Microsoft Excel format). Plant extinction probabilities.

    Files in this Data Supplement:

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