Research ArticleENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Expanding the Soy Moratorium to Brazil’s Cerrado

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Science Advances  17 Jul 2019:
Vol. 5, no. 7, eaav7336
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aav7336
  • Fig. 1 Avoided direct conversion from native vegetation to soy.

    Spatial distribution of the avoided native vegetation conversion to soy in the Cerrado relative to the baseline between 2021 and 2050 under (A) the FC scenario (0.9 Mha) and (B) the SoyM scenario (3.6 Mha). The Matopiba region is highlighted in green. Color bar values are expressed in thousands of hectares per cell.

  • Fig. 2 Soybean expansion per land use class.

    Accumulated conversion from different land use classes to soy in the Cerrado biome as projected by the baseline, FC, and SoyM scenarios for the period 2021–2050.

  • Fig. 3 Soybean area and production in 2020 and 2050.

    Total (A) soybean area and (B) soybean production within Brazil’s major biomes in 2020 for the baseline scenario and in 2050 for the baseline, FC, and SoyM scenarios. Compared to the baseline, between 2021 and 2050, Brazil’s soybean area and production are projected to expand by 11.4 Mha and 59.3 Mt, respectively, under the SoyM scenario, and by 11.3 Mha and 59.1 Mt, respectively, under the FC scenario.

  • Fig. 4 Native vegetation area at risk.

    Area of native vegetation at risk estimated for the following traders or associations: (A) Louis Dreyfus, (B) Amaggi, and (C) ABIOVE and ANEC traders associations, which includes the Big 6. Color bar values are expressed in thousands of hectares per cell.

  • Table 1 Scenario assumptions.

    Main assumptions for the various scenarios, including governance [illegal deforestation control (IDC) in the Amazon (Amz) and the Atlantic Forest (AtlF) biomes; FC, rigorous enforcement of the FC in the whole country, which includes IDC in all Brazil’s biomes, obligatory forest restoration, and compensation by the CRA], compliance with the SoyM, and different starting dates for the extension of the SoyM to the Cerrado.

    ScenariosGovernance IDCSoyM complianceStarting date of the SoyM
    in the Cerrado
    AmazonCerrado
    BaselineAmz and AtlFFullNo
    SoyMAmz and AtlFFullFull2020
    FCBrazilFullNo
    SoyM-15Amz and AtlFFullFull2015
    SoyM-25Amz and AtlFFullFull2025
  • Table 2 Future native vegetation conversion risk.

    The columns show per trader, trader associations, or consumer market; the future soy sourced in million metric tons (Mt); the future native vegetation conversion risk or the area at risk of being converted to soy in million hectares (Mha); and the relative future native vegetation conversion risk in hectares per 1000 metric tons of soy sourced by a given trader, trader association, or consumer region over 30 years. The projections on soy area and production are from the baseline scenario projections of GLOBIOM-Brazil between 2021 and 2050, and the market share of companies or consumer regions are from the TRASE dataset for the year 2015 (1).

    Trader, trader
    association, or
    market
    Future soy
    sourced (Mt)
    Future native
    vegetation
    conversion
    risk (Mha)
    Future relative
    native
    vegetation
    conversion risk
    (ha/1000 metric
    tons per year)
    ADM177.050.2033.89
    Amaggi127.180.2763.69
    Bunge305.910.3837.27
    Cargill247.180.4352.19
    COFCO42.220.0321.32
    Louis Dreyfus172.730.011.74
    Big 61072.261.3236.93
    ABIOVE/ANEC1353.131.7839.46
    China919.491.1537.52
    28 EU countries364.290.4537.06
    Brazil1103.001.6544.88

Supplementary Materials

  • Supplementary Materials

    This PDF file includes:

    • Fig. S1. Soybean area evolution.
    • Fig. S2. Map of soybean expansion.
    • Fig. S3. Native vegetation conversion in the Cerrado.
    • Table S1. Avoided native vegetation loss.
    • Table S2. Emissions estimates.

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