Research ArticleCLIMATOLOGY

Tropical cyclone motion in a changing climate

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Science Advances  22 Apr 2020:
Vol. 6, no. 17, eaaz7610
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaz7610
  • Fig. 1 Observed and simulated climatology of TC motion (m s−1) and midtropospheric TC-steering circulation (m s−1) during July to October (1951–2010).

    (A) TC motion vector from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) data. (B) TC motion vectors in the large-ensemble historical simulation. (C) Midtropospheric (500-hPa) winds from the CERA-20C data. (D) Midtropospheric (500-hPa) wind from the large-ensemble historical simulation. Color shading depicts translation speed (A and B) or wind speed (C and D). The right panels show the zonally averaged climatology of speed magnitude (black), as well as zonal vector (red) and meridional vector (blue) of TC motion (A and D) and midtropospheric winds (C and D).

  • Fig. 2 Simulated changes of TC motion (m s−1) and an approximation for TC-steering circulation (m s−1) July to October.

    (A) TC motion differences between the historical (1951–2010) experiment and the early 20th-century experiment. (B) TC motion differences between the 4-K warming experiment and the historical (1951–2010) experiment. (C) and (D) are the same as (A) and (C), except for showing the midtropospheric (500-hPa) circulation. Color shading depicts differences in translation speed (A and B) or wind speed (C and D). The hatching in the left panels indicates differences are not significant at the 0.05 significance level as determined using a two-sided Student’s t test. The right panels show the zonally averaged changes of speed magnitude (black), zonal component (red), and meridional component (blue) of TC motion (A and B) and midtropospheric wind (C and D).

  • Fig. 3 Observed and simulated trends of TC motion during 1951 to 2010 (m s−1year−1).

    (A) Trend in IBTrACS data. (B) Trend in the ensemble average of the historical (1951–2010) simulation. The linear trend calculation is limited to regions where TCs track through in at least 30 of 60 years. Hatching in (B) indicates differences that are not significant at the 0.05 significance level that is determined using a two-sided Student’s t test. The right panels show the zonally averaged trends of speed magnitude (black), zonal motion vector (red), and meridional motion vector (blue).

  • Fig. 4 Zonally averaged trends (1951–2010) in TC motion and the midtropospheric TC-steering circulation within 100°E to 350°E.

    (A) Trend in TC motion (m s−1 year−1). (B) Trend in midtropospheric (500-hPa) wind speed (m s−1 year−1). Light blue shading, dark blue shading, and black line indicate the model-simulated distribution of trends (1951–2010) at the 2.5th/97.5th, 25th/75th, and 50th percentile, respectively. The dashed red lines in (A) indicate estimated uncertainties for the observed trend using the 95% confidence range of the historical simulations (1951–2010). The groups of red lines in (B) show circulation trend values from observation-constrained data, including CERA-20C (10 possible realizations), NNR [National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis], and NOAA-20CR [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 20th Century Reanalysis version 2c].

Supplementary Materials

  • Supplementary Materials

    Tropical cyclone motion in a changing climate

    Gan Zhang, Hiroyuki Murakami, Thomas R. Knutson, Ryo Mizuta, Kohei Yoshida

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