Research ArticleOCEANOGRAPHY

Optimal temperature overshoot profile found by limiting global sea level rise as a lower-cost climate target

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Science Advances  08 Jan 2020:
Vol. 6, no. 2, eaaw9490
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw9490
  • Fig. 1 Climate responses for all climate targets.

    (A) Surface temperature change, (B) global SLR, and (C) global SLR rate for the 2.0°C target and all corresponding sea level targets. (D) Surface temperature change, (E) global SLR, and (F) global SLR rate for the 1.5°C target and all corresponding sea level targets.

  • Fig. 2 Carbon emissions and concentrations for all climate targets.

    (A) Carbon emissions, (B) cumulative carbon emissions, and (C) atmospheric CO2 concentration for the 2.0°C target and all corresponding sea level targets. (D) Carbon emissions, (E) cumulative carbon emissions, and (F) atmospheric CO2 concentration for the 1.5°C target and all corresponding sea level targets.

  • Fig. 3 Mitigation costs for all climate targets.

    Consumption loss for (A) the 2.0°C target and all corresponding sea level targets and (B) the 1.5°C target and all corresponding sea level targets. (C) CBGE loss for all climate targets. CBGE gives the change in initial consumption that is necessary to reach the difference in welfare assuming equal consumption growth in both the defined climate target and the BAU scenario (21, 22).

  • Fig. 4 Surface temperature change, carbon emissions, and cumulative carbon emissions for different SLR targets.

    (A) Surface temperature change for limiting global SLR at different levels from 0.64 to 0.94 m until 2200. (B) Carbon emissions for limiting global SLR at different levels from 0.64 to 0.94 m until 2200. (C) Cumulative carbon emissions for limiting global SLR at different levels from 0.64 to 0.94 m until 2200.

  • Fig. 5 Characteristics of different SLR targets.

    (A) Normalized CBGE loss and surface temperature change maximum for limiting global SLR at different levels from 0.64 m to 0.94 m until 2200. (B) Surface temperature change, (C) global SLR, and (D) global SLR rate at years 2100 and 2200 for temperature targets and SLR targets of equivalent mitigation costs.

  • Table 1 Definition of climate targets.

    Bold, target variable; normal font, free variable.

    TargetsT maximumSLR maximumSLR rate
    maximum
    T ≤ 2.0°C2.0°C0.89 m5.1 mm/year
    SLR ≤ 0.89 m2.3°C0.89 m5.6 mm/year
    SLR ≤ 5.1 mm/year2.7°C1.02 m5.1 mm/year
    T ≤ 1.5°C1.5°C0.75 m4.2 mm/year
    SLR ≤ 0.75 m1.8°C0.75 m4.6 mm/year
    SLR ≤ 4.2 mm/year2.1°C0.89 m4.2 mm/year

Supplementary Materials

  • Supplementary material for this article is available at http://advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/6/2/eaaw9490/DC1

    Note S1. This auxiliary material contains three supplementary figures and one supplementary table, which are referred to in the main manuscript

    Fig. S1. Historical evolution and future projections as simulated with our three-layer ocean model.

    Fig. S2. Simulated ocean-temperature change with an instantaneous quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 (relative to preindustrial conditions) and then held fixed over 300 years.

    Fig. S3. Simulated global thermosteric SLR with an instantaneous quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 (relative to preindustrial conditions) and then held fixed over 300 years.

    Table S1. Default parameters for the three-layer ocean model.

  • Supplementary Materials

    This PDF file includes:

    • Note S1. This auxiliary material contains three supplementary figures and one supplementary table, which are referred to in the main manuscript
    • Fig. S1. Historical evolution and future projections as simulated with our three-layer ocean model.
    • Fig. S2. Simulated ocean-temperature change with an instantaneous quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 (relative to preindustrial conditions) and then held fixed over 300 years.
    • Fig. S3. Simulated global thermosteric SLR with an instantaneous quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 (relative to preindustrial conditions) and then held fixed over 300 years.
    • Table S1. Default parameters for the three-layer ocean model.

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