Research ArticleOCEANOGRAPHY

Projected 21st century changes in extreme wind-wave events

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Science Advances  10 Jun 2020:
Vol. 6, no. 24, eaaz7295
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaz7295
  • Fig. 1 Magnitude of the 100-year return period significant wave height Hs100[m] resulting from three different dataset EVAs.

    (A) The 1979–2005 intermodel ensemble of the bias-corrected Z standardized variable highest peaks (see Materials and Methods), pooled from global wave model runs forced with seven GCM surface winds. (B) The 1985–2018 calibrated altimeter dataset using the PoT approach with exponential distribution fit. (C) The 1979–2005 peaks over 99.6th percentile threshold for the single global wave model run forced with a reference NOAA CFSR wind speed (exponential distribution fit).

  • Fig. 2 Percentage change in the 100-year return period significant wave height by the end of the 21st century relative to the 1979–2005 period.

    Standardized variable analysis approach is used for the intervals 1979–2005 and 2081–2100. (A) RCP4.5 mid-emission scenario. (B) RCP8.5 high-emission scenario. The regions with statistically significant changes at 5% level (see Materials and Methods; Eq. 7) are hatched.

  • Fig. 3 Changes in extreme event frequency.

    (A) Changes in the number of extreme events per year over the historical 90th percentile threshold between the historical dataset 1979–2005 and future projection 2081–2100 for RCP8.5. (B) As for (A) but for the historical 99.6th percentile threshold. The similar spatial variability demonstrates consistency of the results for different selected thresholds.

  • Fig. 4 Percentage change in 100-year extreme value significant wave height along the global coastline between the historical dataset 1979–2005 and future projection 2081–2100 for RCP8.5.

Supplementary Materials

  • Supplementary Materials

    Projected 21st century changes in extreme wind-wave events

    Alberto Meucci, Ian R. Young, Mark Hemer, Ebru Kirezci, Roshanka Ranasinghe

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