Fig. 1 Global outlook for current and future protected climate space. (A) Available climate is depicted as the two-dimensional frequency distribution of annual mean temperature and annual precipitation, discretized into 1°C temperature and 100-mm precipitation bins. (B) Protected climate space is the analogous frequency distribution within IUCN I to IV PAs. (C) The proportion protected of each climate bin is calculated by dividing the protected climate space distribution by the available climate space distribution protection. (D to F) As (A) to (C) for future climate. Subtracting the current from future available (G) and protected (H) climate space yields the expected temporal change. This change can then be categorized into lost, novel, retained, and declining for both available (J) and protected (K) climate space. Expected change in area protected over univariate temperature (I) and precipitation (L) gradients.
Fig. 2 Protection evenness and retention across regions. Boxplots of protection evenness and protection retention across five regions (colors of boxes match colors of axis labels; n = 205 countries) (see Materials and Methods and text for calculations of each metric). Protection retention calculations are based on future projections from the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) general circulation model.
Fig. 4 PA loss across biomes. Global distribution of biomes (A) and expected total loss in area protected (B) and loss in area protected relative to biome size (C) based on differences in protected climate space with respect to current climate. Plots in (B) and (C) are ranked by total and relative loss, respectively (see Materials and Methods for details of loss calculations).
Fig. 5 Predicting protection retention. Relationships between protection retention and (A) country size, (B) the rate of climate change, (C) the proportion of land area protected, and (D) protection evenness for 205 countries (gray points). Colored lines are weighted quasi-binomial model fits with 95% CIs (shaded regions).
Supplementary Materials
Supplementary material for this article is available at http://advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/6/25/eaay0814/DC1
Additional Files
Supplementary Materials
Keeping pace with climate change in global terrestrial protected areas
Paul R. Elsen, William B. Monahan, Eric R. Dougherty, Adina M. Merenlender
This PDF file includes:
- Figs. S1 to S7
- Tables S1 to S3
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