Smithian growth in a nonindustrial society

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Science Advances  19 Jun 2020:
Vol. 6, no. 25, eaba5694
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aba5694
  • Fig. 1 Location of the Village Ecodynamics Project Study Area in New Mexico, USA, and major settlements considered in this study.

  • Fig. 2 Summary of economic change in the Northern Rio Grande Pueblo region.

    All three time series show statistically significant increases over time, as explained in Table 1: (A) settlement population, (B) ratio of fine-ware to utility-ware sherds, and (C) mean room area. Dotted lines represent 95% confidence intervals surrounding the mean estimates by period.

  • Fig. 3 Settlement population and economic indicators in the Northern Rio Grande Pueblo Region.

    Panels show relationships for indices of consumption (A), personal possessions (B), and the division of labor (C). Symbols reflect chronological groups, and yellow circles are the centers of the data for each time period. Note that for all three indices, there is evidence of increase in both settlement size and the relevant socioeconomic rate over time, but the data series follows a single scaling relation. For full regression results, see table S1.

  • Fig. 4 Scaling relationships through time.

    (A) Scaling intercept for the consumption index (purple) and possessions index (blue) through time; the intercept is estimated using the center coordinates for each period (see table S2 and Eq. 9); note that there is no temporal trend in these data (see table S3). (B) Movement of the center of agglomeration versus consumption (purple) and possessions (blue) over time; note that, in both cases, the centers gradually progress up a single scaling relation with slope β ≅ 7/6, consistent with Eq. 9 in the case of constant technology.

  • Fig. 5 History of economic growth and inequality in the Northern Rio Grande Pueblo area.

    (A) economic growth rates; (B) Gini coefficients. Growth rates are average per year over each period, estimated from 〈[lnN(t)]〉 across all inhabited sites (see Table 1 and Eq. 11). Gini coefficients are based on the distribution of room areas during each period (see Table 1).

  • Table 1 Summary data for the Northern Rio Grande Pueblo area, 1250–1650 CE.

    Period (CE)1200–12501250–12801280–13151315–13501350–14001400–14501450–15151515–15501550–16001600–1650
    Occupied sites15401684158681070356144541022836
    Est. population969920,22526,86231,39835,41737,21135,18025,76319,3698490
    Mean site size
    (room count)*
    Mean of ln[site
    Largest site
    (room count)
    Sites with
    pottery tallies
    Mean ratio fine/
    utility sherds§
    SD ratio0.170.2840.2541.0831.2122.4821.5130.9030.4690.63
    Sites with
    stone data
    Mean ratio
    SD ratio0.320.3830.5550.5750.8770.542N/A0.0830.4910.3
    Measured rooms22451935401772483774211541382
    Sites with
    Mean room area
    SD area2.731.881.541.391.91.141.321.62.141.65
    Gini coefficient
    (room areas)

    *The mean number of rooms inhabited at each site during each period [from (49)]. †Throughout this paper, the data for these periods are averages of results for two periods encompassing 1400–1450 CE and 1600–1650 CE, respectively, in (49).

    ‡Linear fit: 〈 ln [Nt]〉 = (0.006 ± 0.0007)t − (6.958 ± 0.9633), analysis of variance (ANOVA) F(1,8) = 108.8, P < 0.0001, r2 = 0.923.

    §For three chronological groups of log-transformed observations (pre-1280, 1280–1450, and 1450–1650 CE), ANOVA F(2,193) = 13.995, P < 0.0001.

    ǁFor three chronological groups of log-transformed observations (pre-1280, 1280–1450, and 1450–1650 CE), ANOVA F(2,148) = 11.162, P < 0.0001.

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