Research ArticleSOCIAL SCIENCES

Smithian growth in a nonindustrial society

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Science Advances  19 Jun 2020:
Vol. 6, no. 25, eaba5694
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aba5694
  • Fig. 1 Location of the Village Ecodynamics Project Study Area in New Mexico, USA, and major settlements considered in this study.

  • Fig. 2 Summary of economic change in the Northern Rio Grande Pueblo region.

    All three time series show statistically significant increases over time, as explained in Table 1: (A) settlement population, (B) ratio of fine-ware to utility-ware sherds, and (C) mean room area. Dotted lines represent 95% confidence intervals surrounding the mean estimates by period.

  • Fig. 3 Settlement population and economic indicators in the Northern Rio Grande Pueblo Region.

    Panels show relationships for indices of consumption (A), personal possessions (B), and the division of labor (C). Symbols reflect chronological groups, and yellow circles are the centers of the data for each time period. Note that for all three indices, there is evidence of increase in both settlement size and the relevant socioeconomic rate over time, but the data series follows a single scaling relation. For full regression results, see table S1.

  • Fig. 4 Scaling relationships through time.

    (A) Scaling intercept for the consumption index (purple) and possessions index (blue) through time; the intercept is estimated using the center coordinates for each period (see table S2 and Eq. 9); note that there is no temporal trend in these data (see table S3). (B) Movement of the center of agglomeration versus consumption (purple) and possessions (blue) over time; note that, in both cases, the centers gradually progress up a single scaling relation with slope β ≅ 7/6, consistent with Eq. 9 in the case of constant technology.

  • Fig. 5 History of economic growth and inequality in the Northern Rio Grande Pueblo area.

    (A) economic growth rates; (B) Gini coefficients. Growth rates are average per year over each period, estimated from 〈[lnN(t)]〉 across all inhabited sites (see Table 1 and Eq. 11). Gini coefficients are based on the distribution of room areas during each period (see Table 1).

  • Table 1 Summary data for the Northern Rio Grande Pueblo area, 1250–1650 CE.

    Period (CE)1200–12501250–12801280–13151315–13501350–14001400–14501450–15151515–15501550–16001600–1650
    Occupied sites15401684158681070356144541022836
    Est. population969920,22526,86231,39835,41737,21135,18025,76319,3698490
    Mean site size
    (room count)*
    1324346998151232243239283
    Mean of ln[site
    size]
    1.92.142.682.923.173.483.683.674.474.99
    Largest site
    (room count)
    6237001018217918622833263622722317990
    Sites with
    pottery tallies
    1091168362676115
    Mean ratio fine/
    utility sherds§
    0.350.3690.4470.6110.8061.4471.5690.8961.0291
    SD ratio0.170.2840.2541.0831.2122.4821.5130.9030.4690.63
    Sites with
    chipped-
    stone data
    75215791236
    Mean ratio
    chipped
    stone/utility
    sherds
    0.60.6420.8950.4110.7480.3910.1520.6440.5770.33
    SD ratio0.320.3830.5550.5750.8770.542N/A0.0830.4910.3
    Measured rooms22451935401772483774211541382
    Sites with
    measured
    rooms
    58216312851184
    Mean room area
    (m2)ǁ
    6.66.325.545.316.186.516.9976.328.55
    SD area2.731.881.541.391.91.141.321.62.141.65
    Gini coefficient
    (room areas)
    0.280.1780.1660.2330.1880.2020.1540.1640.2040.19

    *The mean number of rooms inhabited at each site during each period [from (49)]. †Throughout this paper, the data for these periods are averages of results for two periods encompassing 1400–1450 CE and 1600–1650 CE, respectively, in (49).

    ‡Linear fit: 〈 ln [Nt]〉 = (0.006 ± 0.0007)t − (6.958 ± 0.9633), analysis of variance (ANOVA) F(1,8) = 108.8, P < 0.0001, r2 = 0.923.

    §For three chronological groups of log-transformed observations (pre-1280, 1280–1450, and 1450–1650 CE), ANOVA F(2,193) = 13.995, P < 0.0001.

    ǁFor three chronological groups of log-transformed observations (pre-1280, 1280–1450, and 1450–1650 CE), ANOVA F(2,148) = 11.162, P < 0.0001.

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