Research ArticleATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE

Using the fast impact of anthropogenic aerosols on regional land temperature to constrain aerosol forcing

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Science Advances  05 Aug 2020:
Vol. 6, no. 32, eabb5297
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abb5297
  • Fig. 1 Time series of NH LSAT anomalies.

    Time series of the observed and simulated NH JJASON LSAT anomalies. The reference period is 1961 to 1980. The panels correspond to the three experiments: NO_F (A), NO_AERO (B) and ALL_F (C). The black lines represent the observations. The colored solid lines and shadings are for the ensemble means and ranges, respectively (AM2 in red, AM3 in blue, and AM4 in green). Strong El Niño (E), La Niña (L), and volcanic eruptions (V) are marked. The right panels are blowups of the period 2001–2015 denoted by the rectangles in the left panels. The dashed lines represent the 2001–2015 averages.

  • Fig. 2 Regional LSAT changes.

    Observed and simulated recent JJASON LSAT changes (2001–2015 minus 1961–1980) over Europe (A) and Asia (B). The boxes denote the mean changes (the center lines) and 90% confidence intervals (see Materials and Methods). The observations are in black, AM2 in red, AM3 in blue, and AM4 in green. The black open circles represent the individual ensemble members.

  • Fig. 3 Time series of regional ERF.

    Time series of the simulated JJASON nonaerosol (the solid lines) and aerosol (the dashed lines) ERF averaged over Europe (A) and Asia (B). AM2 is in red, AM3 in blue, and AM4 in green. The thin and thick lines are for the annual and 5-year running means, respectively.

  • Fig. 4 Emergent constraints for regional and global ERF.

    Scatterplots of the fast recent JJASON LSAT changes versus regional ERF (A and B) or global ERF (C and D) over Europe (A and C) and Asia (B and D). AM2 is in red, AM3 in blue, and AM4 in green. The triangles and squares represent NO_AERO and ALL_F (after subtracting the corresponding NO_F), respectively. The best linear fits and prediction errors are represented by the black solid and dashed lines, respectively. The vertical purple lines denote the observational estimates (obtained by subtracting the multimodel average LSAT changes in NO_F from the observations): the mean (the solid lines) and the mean plus and minus one SD (the dashed lines). The gray areas delineate the ranges of the inferred regional or global ERF.

  • Table 1 NH and regional LSAT changes.

    Comparison of the observed and simulated recent JJASON LSAT changes (K, 2001–2015 minus 1961–1980) over NH, Europe, and Asia.

    NHEuropeAsia
    OBS0.991.220.58
    AM20.82*0.62*0.68
    NO_FAM30.74*0.67*0.65
    AM40.73*0.71*0.57
    AM21.030.86*0.88*
    NO_AEROAM30.990.90*0.75*
    AM40.940.96*0.71
    AM21.071.00*0.83*
    ALL_FAM31.051.160.57
    AM41.081.210.59
    (OBS − NO_
    AERO) / OBS
    AM2−4%29%−51%
    AM30%26%−29%
    AM45%21%−22%

    *The difference between the observation and simulation is significant at P < 0.1.

    Supplementary Materials

    • Supplementary Materials

      Using the fast impact of anthropogenic aerosols on regional land temperature to constrain aerosol forcing

      Zhaoyi Shen, Yi Ming, Isaac M. Held

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      This PDF file includes:

      • Analysis for June to September
      • Figs. S1 to S4

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