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Mandated Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination predicts flattened curves for the spread of COVID-19

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Science Advances  05 Aug 2020:
Vol. 6, no. 32, eabc1463
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abc1463
  • Table 1 Regression tables predicting growth in (A) cases and (B) deaths. Day is mean-centered, and BCG policy variables are both contrast-coded.

    Population is natural log-transformed, and all covariates are standardized. This analysis is based on 134 and 135 countries for cases and deaths, respectively. GDP, gross domestic product.

    A. CasesB. Deaths
    PredictorbtPbtP
    Intercept6.79342.165<0.0012.4458.284<0.001
    Day0.11412.218<0.0010.1399.236<0.001
    Median age0.2192.1640.0340.2241.3630.176
    GDP per capita0.1631.5860.1150.1450.9300.354
    Population density−0.099−1.7150.089−0.012−0.1350.893
    Net migration rate0.1111.2420.2170.0500.3680.713
    Population0.5188.533<0.0010.6797.281<0.001
    BCG past versus never0.1360.4150.679−0.164−0.3220.748
    BCG current versus not current−0.633−3.3880.001−0.993−3.4370.001
    Day × median age0.0081.4420.1530.0202.6310.010
    Day × GDP per capita0.0101.9510.0530.0111.5150.132
    Day × population density−0.001−0.3900.697−0.003−0.6740.502
    Day × net migration rate0.0051.0510.2950.0030.4920.623
    Day × population0.0309.617<0.0010.0378.860<0.001
    Day × BCG past versus never−0.009−0.5110.610−0.007−0.2910.772
    Day × BCG current versus not current−0.039−3.978<0.001−0.059−4.530<0.001

Supplementary Materials

  • Supplementary Materials

    Mandated Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination predicts flattened curves for the spread of COVID-19

    Martha K. Berg, Qinggang Yu, Cristina E. Salvador, Irene Melani, Shinobu Kitayama

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