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Estimation of incubation period distribution of COVID-19 using disease onset forward time: A novel cross-sectional and forward follow-up study

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Science Advances  14 Aug 2020:
Vol. 6, no. 33, eabc1202
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abc1202
  • Table 1 Estimates for the incubation periods of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19.

    NA, not available.

    Incubation
    distribution
    metric
    SARSMERSCOVID-19
    Mean (SD) or
    mean (95% CI)
    Hong Kong
    (14): 4.4 (4.6)
    Saudi Arabia
    (15): 5.0
    (4.0–6.6)
    Wuhan (3): 5.2
    (4.1–7.0)
    Beijing (14): 5.7
    (9.7)
    South Korea
    (15): 6.9 (6.3 to
    7.5)
    Mainland China
    (4): 5.2
    (1.8–12.4)
    Taiwan (14): 6.9
    (6.1)
    South Korea
    (16): 6.9 (6.3 to
    7.5)
    Mainland China
    (6): 5.8 (4.6–7.9)
    Hong Kong
    (17): 4.6 (15.9)
    Saudi Arabia
    (16): 5.0 (4.4 to
    6.6)
    Global (7): 5.6
    (5.0–6.3)
    Mainland China
    (20): 5.29
    (12.33)
    South Korea
    (19): 6.7 (6.1 to
    7.3)
    Global (8): 5.5
    Singapore (21):
    4.83 (4.37–5.29)
    Hong Kong
    (21): 6.37
    (5.29–7.75)
    Median or
    median (95% CI)
    Hong Kong,
    Canada, and
    USA (22): 4
    South Korea
    (19): 6.0
    (4.0–7.0)
    Mainland China
    (5): 3.0
    Middle East
    (23): 5.2
    (1.9–14.7)
    Global (8): 5.1
    (4.5–5.8)
    South Korea
    (24): 6.3
    (5.7–6.8)
    PercentilesMainland
    China, 90% (18):
    10.7
    NAMainland
    China, 2.5% (6):
    1.3
    Hong Kong,
    Canada, and
    USA, 90% (22):
    12
    Wuhan, 95%
    (3): 12.5
    Singapore, 95%
    (20): 9.66 (0.5)
    Mainland
    China, 97.5%
    (6): 11.3
    Mainland
    China, 95% (18):
    13.91
    Global, 2.5% (8):
    2.2 (1.8–2.9)
    Hong Kong,
    95% (21): 14.22
    Global, 97.5%
    (8): 11.5
    (8.2–15.6)
    Mainland
    China, 99% (18):
    20.08
  • Table 2 Comparison between the demographic characteristics of patients with COVID-19 in the studying cohort and all publicly available cases collected as of 15 February 2020.

    Age group
    (years)
    FemaleMaleNo information
    Study cohortAll casesStudy cohortAll casesStudy cohortAll cases
    468 (43.3)*4121 (47.3)614 (57.1)4597 (52.7)24245
    0–1917 (3.7)126 (3.2)24 (4.0)180 (4.2)03
    20–39189 (40.9)1250 (32.2)292 (48.3)1508 (35.0)148
    40–59195 (42.2)1667 (43.0)226 (37.4)1843 (42.8)057
    60–7960 (13.0)749 (19.3)62 (10.2)701 (16.3)040
    ≥801 (0.2)85 (2.2)1 (0.2)78 (1.8)08
    No information6244928704089

    *Number (%). The percentages do not take missing data into account.

    • Table 3 Results of our model based on different choices of π.

      ScenarioReference
      case
      Additional % infected on the Wuhan
      departure day
      π = 0π = 5%π = 10%π = 20%
      α̂1.97
      (1.75, 2.28)
      1.93
      (1.72, 2.22)
      1.89
      (1.69, 2.12)
      1.81
      (1.66, 2.02)
      λ̂0.11
      (0.1, 0.12)
      0.11
      (0.1, 0.12)
      0.11
      (0.11, 0.12)
      0.12
      (0.11, 0.13)
      Mean8.29
      (7.67, 8.9)
      8.01
      (7.45, 8.61)
      7.75
      (7.23, 8.31)
      7.32
      (6.85, 7.8)
      5%2.07
      (1.6, 2.69)
      1.93
      (1.5, 2.52)
      1.81
      (1.42, 2.3)
      1.60
      (1.29, 2)
      25%4.97
      (4.25, 5.78)
      4.73
      (4.07, 5.49)
      4.51
      (3.92, 5.19)
      4.14
      (3.66, 4.7)
      Median7.76
      (7.02, 8.53)
      7.47
      (6.78, 8.18)
      7.19
      (6.55, 7.9)
      6.73
      (6.19, 7.3)
      75%11.04
      (10.34, 11.66)
      10.7
      (10.07, 11.35)
      10.38
      (9.78, 10.98)
      9.86
      (9.3, 10.4)
      90%14.28
      (13.64, 14.9)
      13.92
      (13.32, 14.57)
      13.59
      (12.99, 14.17)
      13.04
      (12.44, 13.59)
      95%16.32
      (15.62, 17.04)
      15.95
      (15.3, 16.65)
      15.62
      (14.91, 16.26)
      15.07
      (14.38, 15.72)
      99%20.31
      (19.15, 21.47)
      19.94
      (18.87, 20.98)
      19.62
      (18.52, 20.62)
      19.1
      (17.98, 20.11)
      99.9%24.95
      (23.04, 26.81)
      24.6
      (22.78, 26.31)
      24.33
      (22.65, 26.03)
      23.89
      (22.05, 25.43)
      −Log
      likelihood
      2843.00
      (2796.63,
      2889.72)
      2843.21
      (2799.86,
      2891.41)
      2843.57
      (2795.53,
      2887.36)
      2844.96
      (2796.74,
      2890.19)

    Supplementary Materials

    • Supplementary Materials

      Estimation of incubation period distribution of COVID-19 using disease onset forward time: a novel cross-sectional and forward follow-up study

      Jing Qin, Chong You, Qiushi Lin, Taojun, Shicheng Yu, Xiao-Hua Zhou

      Download Supplement

      This PDF file includes:

      • Sections S1 to S4
      • Table S1
      • Fig. S1

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