Science Advances

Supplementary Materials

This PDF file includes:

  • Fig. S1. Drift of global average sea surface height anomalies in CMIP5 (zos variable name) for the 20th century (historical) and 21st century (RCP8.5).
  • Fig. S2. CMIP5 21st-century projections of sea surface height variability on interannual (top) and annual cycle (bottom) time scales for the nine models that do not simulate the observed nonlinear relationship between El Niño and the SPCZ.
  • Fig. S3. EOF1 and EOF2 patterns of sea surface height variability for the historical (1911–2005) and RCP8.5 (2006–2100) experiments for the 22 models that simulate the observed nonlinear relationship between El Niño and the SPCZ.
  • Fig. S4. Two principal modes of wind stress variability observed (1979–2013; black lines) in the tropical Pacific and the CMIP5-simulated wind stress anomalies (dots) for the historical (1911–2005) and RCP8.5 (2006–2100) experiments projected onto the observed EOF1 and EOF2 patterns (maps).
  • Fig. S5. Observed nonlinear relationship of wind stress variability and its future change under greenhouse warming.
  • Fig. S6. Observed and changing sea surface height projections (y axes) as a function of wind stress projections (x axes).
  • Fig. S7. Probability of prolonged interannual sea level drops.
  • Fig. S8. Probability of prolonged interannual sea level rise.
  • Fig. S9. Changing sea surface height and wind stress projections with linear trends removed.
  • Fig. S10. Future change of sea surface height variability under greenhouse warming for the nine models that do not simulate the observed nonlinear relationship between El Niño and the SPCZ.
  • Table S1. Statistics of CMIP5 models.
  • Table S2. SDs of observed and simulated sea surface height anomalies (cm) for island regions in the tropical Pacific.

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