Science Advances

Supplementary Materials

This PDF file includes:

  • Fig. S1. Variation in the strength and direction of climate coefficients in moth (n = 131; A) and butterfly (n = 24; B) species’ best climate models.
  • Fig. S2. Maps showing the spatial variation in recorder effort across GB, for butterfly (A) and moth (B) recording schemes.
  • Fig. S3. Significant, positive correlation between independent and fitted R2 from each species’ climate model relating annual change in abundance trends to climate variables (Pearson’s r = 0.86, t153 = 21.11, P < 0.0001).
  • Fig. S4. Map showing the spatial arrangement of neighborhoods around two example focal hectads (black stars).
  • Fig. S5. Correlations between distribution changes calculated using two different levels of recorder effort.
  • Table S1. Moths and butterflies (“But.”) included in the analyses.
  • Table S2. Pearson’s correlations between climate variables.
  • Table S3. Shapiro tests for normality of residuals and error distributions of candidate models in Table 1.
  • Table S4. Candidate models (within 2 AIC units of the best model) for multivariate regressions relating response variables to the sensitivity (“Sens”) and exposure (“Exp”) of moths (n = 131) and butterflies (n = 24) to climate.
  • Table S5. Candidate models (within 2 AIC units of the best model) for multivariate regressions relating response variables to the sensitivity (“Sens”) and exposure (“Exp”) of moths (n = 131) and butterflies (n = 24) to climate, including species’ prevalence as an additional predictor.

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