Supplementary Materials

Science Advances

Supplementary Materials

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fig. S1. Increase in the regional flood protection level required to preserve the current high-end flood risk for the period 2035 to 2044 (realization 16.7 percentile, lower likely range).
fig. S2. Increase in the regional flood protection level required to preserve the current high-end flood risk for the period 2035 to 2044 (realization 83.3 percentile, upper likely range).
fig. S3. Required adaptation relative to current protection to preserve the current high-end flood risk for the period 2035 to 2044 (realization ensemble median).
fig. S4. Affected people in the historic period.
fig. S5. Affected people in the future period.
fig. S6. Absolute increase in high-end flood risk.
fig. S7. Climate model agreement (historic period).
fig. S8. Climate model agreement (future period).
fig. S9. Hydrological model agreement (historic period).
fig. S10. Hydrological model agreement (future period).
fig. S11. Example histogram of affected people (in India).
fig. S12. Example histogram of affected people (in Egypt).
fig. S13. Zoomed-in views of selected metropolitan areas; increase in the regional flood protection level required to preserve the current high-end flood risk for the period 2035 to 2044.
fig. S14. Schematic of the method to yield the affected population from discharge.
fig. S15. Probability plot correlation coefficient for the preindustrial control run of 439 years as a goodness of (GEV) fit measure.
fig. S16. Probability density functions for the fitted GEV distribution at four representative grid cells (hot/cold and wet/dry).
fig. S17. Increase in the regional flood protection level required to preserve the current high-end flood risk for the period 2035 to 2044 (realization ensemble median) using the Gumbel distribution for the extreme value fit (cf. Fig. 3 for GEV fit).
table S1. Main characteristics of the GHMs as used in this study, based on the study of Warszawski et al. (7).