Science Advances

Supplementary Materials

The PDF file includes:

  • Table S1. Definitions of SWS and EWS for the present study.
  • Table S2. Return period of SWS and EWS (as defined in table S1), calculated as the average ± SD across all grids included in the global wheat-growing area (fig. S1) for the year of harvest and as the cumulative value for the harvest year and the preceding year.
  • Table S3. A list of the CMIP5 GCMs used in this study (with brief descriptions).
  • Table S4. Symbols for weighting schemes used in the paper.
  • Fig. S1. Weights of grids as used in the study.
  • Fig. S2. Relationship between the proportion of the global arable land affected by severe water scarcity (SWS) and the cereal price index.
  • Fig. S3. Relationship between the proportion of the global wheat growing area affected by severe water scarcity (SWS) and the cereal price index.
  • Fig. S4. Relationship between the proportion of the wheat growing area of the top ten wheat exporters affected by severe water scarcity (SWS) and the cereal price index.
  • Fig. S5. Change in the wheat production area (WhA) affected by severe/extreme water scarcity for the major world areas and the five main producers.
  • Fig. S6. Extent of wheat production affected by severe water scarcity for the harvest year (a) and the harvest and preceding year(s) (b) for the period from 1861 to 2100.
  • Fig. S7. Area affected by severe water scarcity for two different definitions of wheat sensitive period.
  • Fig. S8. Changes in median/maximum wheat area affected by severe and extreme water scarcity expressed as absolute change and change per 1°C global temperature increase for period 2041–2070.
  • Fig. S9. Changes in median/maximum wheat area affected by severe and extreme water scarcity occurring expressed as absolute change and change per 1°C global temperature increase for period 2071–2099.
  • Fig. S10. Comparison of area affected by severe and extreme water scarcity when future harvest is shifted by ±1 month.
  • Legends for movies S1 to S3

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Other Supplementary Material for this manuscript includes the following:

  • Movie S1 (.mp4 format). The annual extent of SWS events for the period 1901–2016 based on the CRU data and then projections for six GCM models under the RCP 2.6 scenario.
  • Movie S2 (.mp4 format). The annual extent of SWS events for the period 1901–2016 based on the CRU data and then projections for six GCM models under the RCP 4.5 scenario.
  • Movie S3 (.mp4 format). The annual extent of SWS events for the period 1901–2016 based on the CRU data and then projections for six GCM models under the RCP 8.5 scenario.

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