Science Advances

Supplementary Materials

This PDF file includes:

  • Climate model validation of Arctic precipitation (mean and variability)
  • Model-based interannual versus decadal variability
  • Separating interannual and decadal variability
  • Changes in convective (small-scale) precipitation in the Arctic
  • Intermodel differences and decadal variations in interannual precipitation variability uncertainty
  • Intermodel versus intramodel uncertainties in interannual precipitation variability trends
  • Fig. S1. Arctic (70° to 90°N) mean and annual mean precipitation (average and interannual variability) as simulated by 35 CMIP5 global climate models compared with six observation- driven reanalysis datasets for the period 1981–2010.
  • Fig. S2. Arctic (70° to 90°N) mean and annual mean precipitation, surface evaporation, and poleward moisture transport across 70°N for each of the 16 randomly chosen initial conditions in the 2000-year EC-Earth climate model ensemble of the present-day climate.
  • Fig. S3. Relations between mean and variability of Arctic moisture budget components.
  • Fig. S4. Arctic (70° to 90°N) and annual mean precipitation anomaly (i.e., mean value subtracted) for a 400-year simulation of the current climate using the global climate model EC-Earth.
  • Fig. S5. Arctic moisture budget component variability estimates of the current climate and the 2xCO2 climate (both 400-year quasi-equilibrium climates simulated by EC-Earth) for the complete time series (ALL), only decadal variations (DEC), and only interannual variations (INT).
  • Fig. S6. Time scale–dependent correlations between time series of annual mean Arctic precipitation and moisture transport at 70°N (blue lines) and precipitation and surface evaporation (red lines) for the current climate (full lines) and the 2xCO2 climate (dashed lines).
  • Fig. S7. Model-simulated (EC-Earth) change in convective precipitation in the Arctic between a 2xCO2 and a 1xCO2 simulation expressed as the difference in the ratio (in percentage) of convective to total precipitation occurrence, evaluated using annual means.
  • Fig. S8. Arctic precipitation variability and its uncertainty in CMIP5 preindustrial simulations, determined by taking the SD over subsequent 30-year detrended periods (annual means), per model.
  • Fig. S9. Arctic interannual precipitation variability trends (1980–2100) and their intermodel (between models) and intramodel (within one model) uncertainties for six state-of-the-art global climate models, determined by taking the SD over subsequent 30-year detrended periods (annual means) and then taking a linear regression of the resulting time series in variability.
  • References (2831)

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