Science Advances

Supplementary Materials

This PDF file includes:

  • Fig. S1. Estimated contribution of Pacific and Atlantic internal variability to GSAT in °C per decade during 1981–2014 and 1981–2017.
  • Fig. S2. Correlation of the simulated warming trend for the period 1981–2017 with TCR.
  • Fig. S3. Correlation of the simulated warming trend for the period 1981–2014 with TCR, showing different types of regression and methods of estimating the uncertainty of the regression.
  • Fig. S4. Correlations of future warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models (with respect to 1995–2014 baseline), with the simulated past warming trend (1981–2017).
  • Fig. S5. Correlations of future warming in CMIP6 models (with respect to 1995–2014 baseline), with the simulated past warming trend (1981–2017).
  • Fig. S6. Correlations of TCR and ECS with future warming in CMIP6 and CMIP5 models.
  • Table S1. CMIP6 models used in this study with their TCR and ECS values.
  • Table S2. GSAT trends for the periods 1981–2017 and 1981–2014 and estimates of the effect of internal variability of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models.
  • Table S3. TCR ranges (constrained and unconstrained) in CMIP6 and CMIP5 models.
  • Table S4. Future warming (constrained and unconstrained) in CMIP6 models under different SSP scenarios, as labeled.
  • References (55, 56)

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