PT - JOURNAL ARTICLE AU - Mayer, Allegra AU - Hausfather, Zeke AU - Jones, Andrew D. AU - Silver, Whendee L. TI - The potential of agricultural land management to contribute to lower global surface temperatures AID - 10.1126/sciadv.aaq0932 DP - 2018 Aug 01 TA - Science Advances PG - eaaq0932 VI - 4 IP - 8 4099 - http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/8/eaaq0932.short 4100 - http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/8/eaaq0932.full SO - Sci Adv2018 Aug 01; 4 AB - Removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) combined with emission reduction is necessary to keep climate warming below the internationally agreed upon 2°C target. Soil organic carbon sequestration through agricultural management has been proposed as a means to lower atmospheric CO2 concentration, but the magnitude needed to meaningfully lower temperature is unknown. We show that sequestration of 0.68 Pg C year−1 for 85 years could lower global temperature by 0.1°C in 2100 when combined with a low emission trajectory [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6]. This value is potentially achievable using existing agricultural management approaches, without decreasing land area for food production. Existing agricultural mitigation approaches could lower global temperature by up to 0.26°C under RCP 2.6 or as much as 25% of remaining warming to 2°C. This declines to 0.14°C under RCP 8.5. Results were sensitive to assumptions regarding the duration of carbon sequestration rates, which is poorly constrained by data. Results provide a framework for the potential role of agricultural soil organic carbon sequestration in climate change mitigation.