RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 The potential of agricultural land management to contribute to lower global surface temperatures
JF Science Advances
JO Sci Adv
FD American Association for the Advancement of Science
SP eaaq0932
DO 10.1126/sciadv.aaq0932
VO 4
IS 8
A1 Mayer, Allegra
A1 Hausfather, Zeke
A1 Jones, Andrew D.
A1 Silver, Whendee L.
YR 2018
UL http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/8/eaaq0932.abstract
AB Removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) combined with emission reduction is necessary to keep climate warming below the internationally agreed upon 2°C target. Soil organic carbon sequestration through agricultural management has been proposed as a means to lower atmospheric CO2 concentration, but the magnitude needed to meaningfully lower temperature is unknown. We show that sequestration of 0.68 Pg C year−1 for 85 years could lower global temperature by 0.1°C in 2100 when combined with a low emission trajectory [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6]. This value is potentially achievable using existing agricultural management approaches, without decreasing land area for food production. Existing agricultural mitigation approaches could lower global temperature by up to 0.26°C under RCP 2.6 or as much as 25% of remaining warming to 2°C. This declines to 0.14°C under RCP 8.5. Results were sensitive to assumptions regarding the duration of carbon sequestration rates, which is poorly constrained by data. Results provide a framework for the potential role of agricultural soil organic carbon sequestration in climate change mitigation.