RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Evaluating the mineral commodity supply risk of the U.S. manufacturing sector
JF Science Advances
JO Sci Adv
FD American Association for the Advancement of Science
SP eaay8647
DO 10.1126/sciadv.aay8647
VO 6
IS 8
A1 Nassar, Nedal T.
A1 Brainard, Jamie
A1 Gulley, Andrew
A1 Manley, Ross
A1 Matos, Grecia
A1 Lederer, Graham
A1 Bird, Laurence R.
A1 Pineault, David
A1 Alonso, Elisa
A1 Gambogi, Joseph
A1 Fortier, Steven M.
YR 2020
UL http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/8/eaay8647.abstract
AB Trade tensions, resource nationalism, and various other factors are increasing concerns regarding the supply reliability of nonfuel mineral commodities. This is especially the case for commodities required for new and emerging technologies ranging from electric vehicles to wind turbines. In this analysis, we use a conventional risk-modeling framework to develop and apply a new methodology for assessing the supply risk to the U.S. manufacturing sector. Specifically, supply risk is defined as the confluence of three factors: the likelihood of a foreign supply disruption, the dependency of U.S. manufacturers on foreign supplies, and the ability of U.S. manufacturers to withstand a supply disruption. The methodology is applied to 52 commodities for the decade spanning 2007–2016. The results indicate that a subset of 23 commodities, including cobalt, niobium, rare earth elements, and tungsten, pose the greatest supply risk. This supply risk is dynamic, shifting with changes in global market conditions.