PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Meucci, Alberto
AU  - Young, Ian R.
AU  - Hemer, Mark
AU  - Kirezci, Ebru
AU  - Ranasinghe, Roshanka
TI  - Projected 21st century changes in extreme wind-wave events
AID  - 10.1126/sciadv.aaz7295
DP  - 2020 Jun 01
TA  - Science Advances
PG  - eaaz7295
VI  - 6
IP  - 24
4099  - http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/24/eaaz7295.short
4100  - http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/24/eaaz7295.full
SO  - Sci Adv2020 Jun 01; 6
AB  - We describe an innovative approach to estimate global changes in extreme wave conditions by 2100, as a result of projected climate change. We generate a synthetic dataset from an ensemble of wave models forced by independent climate simulation winds, enhancing statistical confidence associated with projected changes in extreme wave conditions. Under two IPCC representative greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), we find that the magnitude of a 1 in 100-year significant wave height (Hs) event increases by 5 to 15% over the Southern Ocean by the end of the 21st century, compared to the 1979–2005 period. The North Atlantic shows a decrease at low to mid latitudes (≈5 to 15%) and an increase at high latitudes (≈10%). The extreme significant wave height in the North Pacific increases at high latitudes by 5 to 10%. The ensemble approach used here allows statistical confidence in projected changes of extremes.