Table 1 Candidate models (within 2 AIC units of the best model) for multivariate regressions relating response variables to the sensitivity (“Sens”) and exposure (“Exp”) of butterflies (n = 24) and moths (n = 131) to climate.

SEs are provided within brackets; bold values indicate individually significant effects. Response variables were standardized values of changes in abundance, distribution size, and northern range margin; the latter two variables were calculated using well-recorded 10 × 10–km grid squares (hectads) and standardized before analysis to enable comparisons between the size and direction of coefficients.

ResponseTaxaInterceptExposureSensitivityExp:SensΔAICR2
Δ AbundanceButterfly−0.050.68 (0.12)0.16 (0.14)0.35 (0.14)0.000.64
Moth0.290.80 (0.07)0.000.59
Δ Distribution sizeButterfly0.560.63 (0.28)0.20 (0.24)0.26 (0.33)0.000.53
Butterfly1.310.66 (0.12)0.130.45
Moth0.000.45 (0.07)0.000.22
Δ Northern range marginButterfly−0.370.25 (0.13)0.000.14
Butterfly−0.401.580.00
Moth−0.100.22 (0.06)0.000.03
Moth−0.150.08 (0.06)−0.03 (0.06)−0.15 (0.06)1.890.05