Table 1 Comparison of trends in warm pool intensity and area between observations and climate model simulations.

Multimodel means of linear trend slopes are defined as the signal (SALL, SANT, SGHG, or SNAT), and the SD of trends across nonoverlapping CTL chunks is defined as the noise (N). The 5 to 95% CIs are shown in Fig. 2. Signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) are then calculated from slopes of SST and area series averaged over the three warm pool regions during 1953–2012 for ALL and ANT simulations. Observational (39) trend slopes with (SOBS) and without the influence of the PDO (SOBS*) are given for comparison. Units for S and N are °C and % per 60 years for warm pool intensity and area, respectively.

SALL
(SNRALL)
SANT
(SNRANT)
SGHGSNATNCTLSOBS
SOBS*
Intensity (°C per 60 years)
Indo-Pacific0.25 (7.24)0.24 (7.01)0.390.010.030.30 (0.26*)
Indian0.26 (9.16)0.25 (8.97)0.430.010.030.34 (0.28*)
Pacific0.28 (6.14)0.27 (6.02)0.430.010.050.33 (0.29*)
Area (percentage per 60 years)
Indo-Pacific37.3 (2.99)35.3 (2.83)67.12.012.532.2 (27.4*)
Indian38.4 (2.1)36.4 (1.99)78.772.118.351.2 (44.3*)
Pacific36.7 (2.36)34.7 (2.23)61.02.015.621.6 (18.0*)