Table 1 Description of the policies within each cluster.

One policy from each cluster is specified to construct an SDG strategy, which is subsequently combined with an SSP to form a complete GLOBIOM scenario. The expected pressurizing effect of each policy on food prices is indicated in the far right column, where “P” indicates pressurizing policies expected to raise food prices, and “D” indicates depressurizing policies expected to decrease food prices.

Policy clusterPolicyDescriptionFood effect
Energy and climate (SDGs 7, 13, and 14)BAU
Climate-BE
Climate-BE+
Nominal primary energy profile: no climate target
Moderate bioenergy and nuclear energy: ΔT < 2°C
High bioenergy and no nuclear: ΔT < 2°C

P
P
Food system resilience (SDGs 1, 2, 6, 8, 9, and 12)Low flexibility
BAU
High flexibility
Slow production system shifts and high waste
Nominal production system shifts and waste
Rapid production system shifts and low waste
P

D
Agricultural productivity (SDGs 2 and 12)BAU
+30% yield
+50% yield
Nominal input-neutral agricultural yield growth
Nominal input-neutral yield growth + 30%
Nominal input-neutral yield growth + 50%

D
D
Terrestrial ecosystems (SDGs 6 and 15)BAU
Zero def
Zero def/grslnd
No restrictions on land-use change
No gross forest loss
No gross forest or grassland loss

P
P
Biodiversity conservation (SDGs 14 and 15)BAU
Biodiversity
Biodiversity+
Unrestricted conversion of biodiversity hotspots
Moderate protection of biodiversity hotspots
No conversion of biodiversity hotspots

P
P
LULUCF climate change mitigation
(SDGs 13–15)
BAU
GHG $10
GHG $50
No tax on LULUCF emissions
LULUCF emissions tax: US $10/tCO2eq
LULUCF emissions tax: US $50/tCO2eq

P
P
Sustainable consumption (SDGs 2, 8, and 12)Diet−
BAU
Diet+
Western diet globalization
FAO diet projections
Reduced meat demand
P

D