One policy from each cluster is specified to construct an SDG strategy, which is subsequently combined with an SSP to form a complete GLOBIOM scenario. The expected pressurizing effect of each policy on food prices is indicated in the far right column, where “P” indicates pressurizing policies expected to raise food prices, and “D” indicates depressurizing policies expected to decrease food prices.
Policy cluster | Policy | Description | Food effect |
Energy and climate (SDGs 7, 13, and 14) | BAU Climate-BE Climate-BE+ | Nominal primary energy profile: no climate target Moderate bioenergy and nuclear energy: ΔT < 2°C High bioenergy and no nuclear: ΔT < 2°C | — P P |
Food system resilience (SDGs 1, 2, 6, 8, 9, and 12) | Low flexibility BAU High flexibility | Slow production system shifts and high waste Nominal production system shifts and waste Rapid production system shifts and low waste | P — D |
Agricultural productivity (SDGs 2 and 12) | BAU +30% yield +50% yield | Nominal input-neutral agricultural yield growth Nominal input-neutral yield growth + 30% Nominal input-neutral yield growth + 50% | — D D |
Terrestrial ecosystems (SDGs 6 and 15) | BAU Zero def Zero def/grslnd | No restrictions on land-use change No gross forest loss No gross forest or grassland loss | — P P |
Biodiversity conservation (SDGs 14 and 15) | BAU Biodiversity Biodiversity+ | Unrestricted conversion of biodiversity hotspots Moderate protection of biodiversity hotspots No conversion of biodiversity hotspots | — P P |
LULUCF climate change mitigation (SDGs 13–15) | BAU GHG $10 GHG $50 | No tax on LULUCF emissions LULUCF emissions tax: US $10/tCO2eq LULUCF emissions tax: US $50/tCO2eq | — P P |
Sustainable consumption (SDGs 2, 8, and 12) | Diet− BAU Diet+ | Western diet globalization FAO diet projections Reduced meat demand | P — D |