Table 1 TERGMs of the conflict network with geographic contiguity interacted with alliances, 1965–2000.

All models are estimated with bootstrap-corrected pseudolikelihood using 1000 replications. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals are presented in brackets. Coefficients and confidence intervals displayed in bold are statistically significant at the P = 0.05 level.

VariableModel 1Model 2
Edges−7.99 (−8.24 to −7.77)−8.06 (−8.28 to −7.85)
Alternating k-stars (2)1.11 (0.98 to 1.22)1.11 (0.98 to 1.23)
Four-cycle0.56 (0.44 to 1.16)0.55 (0.44 to 1.08)
GWESP (0)−0.30 (−0.51 to −0.13)−0.31 (−0.52 to −0.13)
Joint democracy−0.66 (−0.91 to −0.44)−0.69 (−0.94 to −0.49)
Direct contiguity4.34 (4.10 to 4.64)4.39 (4.16 to 4.68)
Capability ratio−0.17 (−0.22 to −0.12)−0.16 (−0.22 to −0.12)
Trade dependence−0.18 (−0.52 to −0.05)−0.16 (−0.43 to −0.04)
One-degree alliance0.96 (0.44 to 1.42)
Two-degree alliance0.17 (−0.31 to 0.61)
Three-degree alliance0.44 (−0.03 to 0.91)
Four-degree alliance−0.26 (−1.02 to 0.26)
Contiguity × One-degree alliance−1.49 (−1.92 to −0.99)
Contiguity × Two-degree alliance−0.84 (−1.45 to −0.27)
Contiguity × Three-degree alliance−1.28 (−2.10 to −0.54)
Contiguity × Four-degree alliance0.13 (−0.85 to 1.15)
Within community0.70 (0.26 to 1.10)
Neighboring communities0.63 (0.27 to 0.99)
Contiguity × Within community−1.16 (−1.54 to −0.73)
Contiguity × Neighboring communities−1.43 (−2.02 to −0.87)