Table 1 Analysis of the causes of changes in sub-ice blooms in the Arctic Ocean.

The average fraction of the Arctic Ocean that permits a light-limited sub-ice bloom from 2006 to 2015 when labeled external fields are held constant at their mean 1986–1995 values. The Arctic is defined as the region with latitudes greater than 70°N, excluding Baffin Bay. Percentage by area refers to the average area of the Arctic with an ice concentration greater than 80%, in which at least three consecutive days permit enough light for a light-limited bloom to occur, averaged over the time period 2006–2015. The notation “x fixed” refers to output when the variable x is fixed at its mean 1986–1996 values. Variables that may be fixed are the ice thickness h, melt pond fraction φ, and ice concentration c. The final row is the average fraction of the Arctic Ocean that permits a light-limited sub-ice bloom from 2006 to 2015 when the melt pond fraction φ is is always equal to zero.

May % areaJune % areaJuly % area
None fixed1.1%13.1%21.4%
h fixed0.3%1.5%2.2%
φ fixed3.5%7.9%16.2%
c fixed2.1%16.0 %31.1%
h, c fixed0.3%1.1%2.0%
φ, c fixed5.5%11.6%29.5%
φ, h fixed0.9%1.4 %1.6%
φ = 00.8%4.4%6.1%