Table 2 The calendar date ranges or periods (in calendar years) determined for selected Dates, Spans, and Boundaries in the Draper-Spang-Mantle site sequence model shown in Fig. 4 and compared with a rerun of this model but using (i) the Charcoal Plus Outlier model (30, 37) and (ii) after excluding the six minor possible outliers noted in the Supplementary Materials and fig. S5.

This rerun model runs with typical values of Amodel of 86.5 and Aoverall of 84 each above the satisfactory threshold value of 60. Calendar dates CE in regular font, calendar years (duration) in italics.

Figure 4 modelRerun revised model
68.2% hpd95.4% hpd68.2% hpd95.4% hpd
Start Draper1523–15391517–15511522–15401515–1553
Date Draper1528–15441523–15551527–15441521–1557
Span Draper1–130–251–130–26
Mid end
Draper
1532–15491528–15591531–15501527–1561
Duration end
Draper
0–50–150–50–16
Mid start
Spang
1543–15661535–15801543–15671535–1581
Duration
start
Spang
0–60–190–60–19
Date Spang1551–15771543–15911551–15781542–1592
Span Spang4–231–384–231–39
Mid end
Spang
1564–15901551–15991564–15911550–1600
Duration end
Spang
0–70–230–70–23
Mid start
Mantle
1593–16081580–16141593–16081579–1615
Duration
start
Mantle
0–70–230–60–21
Date Mantle1599–16141587–16231599–16141586–1623
Span Mantle2–190–371–170–38
End Mantle1604–16181599–16311604–16181596–1631