Table 1 Pantropical and regional estimates of the full carbon impact of intact forest loss.

Pulse emissions include those from forest clearance and fire observed between 2000 and 2013. Disturbance inside intact forests will lead to numerous sources of emissions between 2013 and 2050, including selective logging, edge effects, and defaunation, herein collectively referred to as committed emissions. Committed emissions shown here also account for some carbon sequestration from forest regrowth between 2013 and 2050 (see Materials and Methods). Emission estimates were based on a synthesis map of pantropical aboveground biomass of woody vegetation (22). Upper and lower uncertainty bounds were based on rerunning emission calculations with two original biomass maps (23, 24). Forgone removals are an estimate of the amount of carbon that cleared or degraded forests could have sequestered had they remained intact beyond 2000. Forgone removal estimates and 95% confidence intervals were based on carbon sequestration rates in intact tropical forests estimated for the 2000s (4).

Carbon emissions (Tg C)Forgone (Tg C)
RegionCarbon impact (Tg C)Net (2000–2050)Pulse (2000–2013)Committed (2013–2050)Total (2000–2050)
Pantropics2116 (2854–1004)1114 (1250–673)338 (372–208)806 (878–465)972 (1604–331)
Latin America1132 (1633–455)677 (766–420)263 (294–168)414 (472–252)455 (867–35)
Africa517 (681–239)236 (239–117)31 (32–15)205 (207–103)281 (442–122)
Asia-Pacific467 (540–310)231 (245–135)44 (46–25)188 (199–110)236 (295–175)